The following are in order of how I picked them to finish with current standing details as of stage 16:
1. Alberto Contador: Lost more time to Froome in the time-trial last week though made a little back when his Saxo-Bank team caused a split in the bunch thanks to cross-winds. He lost all that and more however on the ride to Mont Ventoux. He was the last man from the bunch that Froome dropped, but he cracked late. Still over the course of the week he has made up places moving from 6th to 3rd in the second week. Currently: 3rd at 4'25"
2. Chris Froome: Has only looked under pressure on that epic stage 13 with the echelons that caused him to lose little over a minute to some of his rivals but when the road has pointed up he has been perfect winning both mountain top finishes including an epic ride to the top of Mont Ventoux. Currently: 1st
3. Ryder Hesjedal: Upon losing too much time in the first weeks mountains thanks to a cracked rib that has him riding hurt, Hesjedal has turned off the gas a little and isn't trying to keep pace on the big climbs. He's well back now and his only hope is a stage win if his rib recovers before Paris. Currently: 72nd at 1h 28'54"
4. Tejay Van Garderen: Got into a break in stage 14, but never really featured. Only was allowed clear because he's lost too much time through the mountains. A big step back compared to last year for the young American. Currently: 55th at 1h 8'10"
5. Joaquim Rodriguez: Had a solid finish on Mont Ventoux, finishing in 4th place, but still lost time to Froome. Still it was a better second week and it has seen him move up a little in the standings. A stage win might be possible and he could yet crack the fifth place position. Currently: 7th at 7’11"
6. Thibaut Pinot: I said last week that his best hope now was a stage win after losing too much time overall due to a fright of going downhill. Unfortunately for the young French hope he won't eve get that as he abandoned the Tour on the second rest day. He's got a real phobia to overcome, so bad that he didn't even fancy riding into the Alps. Currently: DNF
7. Jurgan Van Den Broeck: Currently: DNF
8. Richie Porte: Looked brilliant pacing Froome on Ventoux, seting him up for the win before cracking himself. Still, he's there to ride for Froome and he's doing a fine job. Had a brilliant time-trial at Mont Saint Michel to finish 4th. Currently: 26th at 32'53"
9. Cadel Evans: The towel has been thrown into the ring by Evans as he continues to lose big time anytime there's climbing to be done. He could now be allowed away to win a stage but I'm not sure he even has that in him now. Riding the Giro and expecting to perform in the Tour was perhaps too much for him. It might tempt him to stick with one next year for one last roll of the dice, but I think we've long since seen the best of Cadel Evans. Currently: 17th at 16'40"
10. Pierre Rolland: He's been disappointing given what was expected of him. After losing time in the first week it looked as though stage wins and a run at the King of the Mountains would be his goal, but he hasn't come close to winning a stage and he's dropped right out of the King of the Mountains competition. Still time to win a stage and given that the French have yet to win one, they may be turning to him in desperation heading into the Alps. Currently: 32nd at 36'05"
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And the other competitions:
Points: Peter Sagan, Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel: So far I've picked this one right and it looks like it might stay that way. Certainly, baring a crash or illness, Sagan is not going to lose the jersey.
Mountains: Joaquim Rodriguez, Thomas Voeckler, Dan Martin: None of these three are close in this contest. I'm not sure Rodriguez has led over a single climb while Voeckler looks a shadow of his 2012 self. Dan Martin has a stage win but has been quiet ever since. May go after one more stage but none of these three will make up ground in the points competition now.
Young: Tejay Van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Andrew Talansky: Only Talansky is in the top three in this competition, in the projected third place. Instead of a Van Garderen versus Pinot battle we've been given a duel between climbing sensation Nairo Quintana and all-round talent Michal Kwiatkowski. With the Alps to come and the Colombian looking stronger and stronger on the hills, I suspect Quintana will run away with this competition in the third week.
Team: Sky: The big efforts for Chris Froome have counted against them, often the day after those efforts. Only Froome remains high up the overall and as such the team are a long way off in the team competition. It's funny. Some skeptics were comparing Sky to the tainted US Postal team of the early 2000's after the first day in the mountains, but it's now clear they are anything but that ... they're not even close to the team they were in 2012. Currently: 11th at 1h 13'19"
Most stage wins: Mark Cavendish: He's up to two wins now with Paris being his last chance at completing the hat trick. Marcel Kittel leads the way with three wins and Chris Froome is also on two heading into the Alps, so while Cavendish won't win this contest outright, he could yet tie Kittel. Currently: 2 stage wins.
