A look at how my top ten projections are panning out (not well!)

Heading into the first rest day I thought it would be a good time to take a look at my predicted top ten before the tour began and see how each of them are doing. No doubt about it there have been a few of them who have come in well below expectations, replaced in the top ten by some who have gone way beyond what anyone thought they could do. But that's the Tour de France for you, that's what makes it so special. You never know how a persons body is going to react until they're thrown into the race and often there are surprising results. I'll also take a look at my predictions for the other jersey competitions and how they are shaping up. Suffice to say, I hope you took my only decent advice and didn't go laying any bets based on my pre-Tour projections!



The following are in order of how I picked them to finish:

1. Alberto Contador: Couldn't react to Chris Froome's attack on stage eight and when Sky were exposed on stage 9 he did nothing to try and break Froome. Looks as though he's hanging on. Not the man we used to know. Is it a cleaner, or just an aging, Contador? Currently: 6th at 1'51"

2. Chris Froome: Everything that was expected of him. He stayed out of trouble until stage eight into the mountains and then looked over his shoulder to see nobody on his wheel. Duly left his team-mate behind to ride to a fine solo win and a Yellow jersey that will be very hard for the rest to shift. Currently: 1st

3. Ryder Hesjedal: Since winning his Giro, Ryder has been out of luck in Grand Tours. Crashed out of last years Tour, fell ill at this years Giro, and then cracked a rib early in this years race. As a result he isn't half the man he can be though it hasn't stopped him trying to get in the mix, but even a stage win will be a big ask. Currently: 41st at 26'8"

4. Tejay Van Garderen: Has failed to repeat his superb ride last year or retain the form he showed in the Tour of California. Stayed quiet until stage eight but lost contact when the pace went up and on stage nine trailed home over 22 minutes behind his should-be rivals. Currently: 51st at 35'1"

5. Joaquim Rodriguez: He was caught a little cold it seemed on the final climb yesterday when the pace went up sooner than he might have hoped. Rodriguez is better when it's a steady pace from which he can jump away in the final kilometre of the climb. I thought he'd win by doing that yesterday, but it wasn't his style. Currently: 9th at 2'31"

6. Thibaut Pinot: I really hoped the young Frenchman could kick on from 10th last year and give the French a real hope in the race, something they haven't had for years, but he was terrified on the descent yesterday and lost time, and finished today miles behind the men he needs to be with. Best hope now is a stage win. Currently: 47th at 31'31"

7. Jurgan Van Den Broeck: All hopes dashed when he abandoned the Tour with an injury on stage six. Currently: DNF

8. Richie Porte: Finished second to Froome in a superb effort yesterday to give Sky another one-two after Bradley Wiggins and Froome last year. Looked as though the pair would ride arm-in-arm to Paris, but one day later his efforts caught up to him. He was dropped early and by the time he found his legs it was much too late. Currently: 33rd at 18'30"

9. Cadel Evans: The heart is there but the legs are gone now at the age of 36. When the pressure went on in stage eight, Evans quickly went out the back. He held in well on stage nine, but then there was no massive surging attack and that suits him nowadays. Currently: 16th at 4'36"

10. Pierre Rolland: The second coming of Richard Virenque, the Frenchman has turned his sights of chasing the polka-dot jersey. Happy to grab the points while he can then ride into the finish. He's been on the attack a lot as a result but has been unable to sustain it finishing behind the top men in both mountain stages. Currently: 26th at 12'34"

So who has crept into the top ten so far that I never seen coming? I can't say I'm shocked to see the likes of Roman Kreuziger, Nairo Quintana or even Dan Martin in there. Had I stretched my top ten into a top fifteen all three might have made the list, but I definitely did not see the Belkin pair of Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam moving into third and fourth respectively. No wonder that team were desperate to hold out for a sponsor given the form they knew this pair carried. Whether they can keep it up remains to be seen, but it's great to see. The Tour always breeds fresh challengers each year that we didn't see coming (and as we've seen with Van Garderen and Pinot twelve months on from their top ten arrivals, it can also spit them back out again) and either could challenge for a stage win if they can shake Froome. He won't have had them on his radar before yesterday, but both finished high on stage eight, and with the main group on stage nine and going into the rest day will be very much in the mind of Froome.

As for the other competitions:

Points: Peter Sagan, Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel: Swap Greipel and Cavendish around and you have this top three in their now correct order. Sagan is waltzing away with the Points competition.

Mountains: Joaquim Rodriguez, Thomas Voeckler, Dan Martin: Rodriguez has been quiet, Voeckler is not the same rider, but Martin grabbed points on the final climb on stage 9 which he won. The current top three is Rolland, desperate to win this competition now, on 49; Froome, as a result of his win on stage 8, on 33; and Porte on 28. Martin is back in 10th on 13 and unlikely to challenge.

Young: Tejay Van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Andrew Talansky: See above for Van Garderen and Pinot's fall away from expectations. Talansky is also well back, but in 4th in the competition. The leader is Nairo Quintana who looks a future Tour winner, but at just 1'23" behind him is Michal Kwiatkowski who held the White jersey for most of the first week and who looks a revelation. The Pole can sprint and climb and has four top four stage finishes in the first eight days of road racing.

Team: Sky: It was looking decent for them until stage 9 when the pressure came on from the others early and the Sky boy were punished for their efforts the day before. The sad speculation by some on social media that they're all doped up after Saturday's performance doesn't really hold true after how it went today. They looked very normal after a big effort the day before. Currently: 12th at 46'24"

Most stage wins: Mark Cavendish: So far he has just one win. Indeed, nobody has won more than one stage in a very wide open tour as far as stage results go. Currently: 1 stage win.