Wednesday, April 30, 2014

King of Spring: 23 March - 27 April

It lasts little more than a month, but the spring classics are a race of two halves. The first half is the cobbled classics that suit the power riders like Fabian Cancellara, Peter Sagan and Tom Boonen, as well as the Milan-San Remo to begin spring. The later half is the more hillier Ardennes classics that bring into play men like Alejandro Vanverde, Simon Gerrans and Michael Kwiatkowski. While Cancellara scored top ten finishes in four of the first five spring classics this season, Valverde took until the sixth race to get on the board. Meanwhile Cancellara failed to feature after Paris-Roubaix. Different horses for different courses.

But who was the best, or at least the most consistent over the spring classics? Out of interests sake I went about listing the eight classics and using the Formula One points system of 25 points for first down to 1 point for 10th to find a top ten overall. The eight classics scored were Milan-San Remo, E3 Harelbeke, Gent-Wevelgem, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Amstel Gold, La Flèche Wallonne and Liège–Bastogne–Liège and it was equal points for each race.

So below is the top ten best scorers over the eight spring classic races with their highlights in brackets and as you will see many of the names are predictable:

1. Niki Terpstra - 86 (1st Roubaix; 1st Dwars Door; 2nd E3)
2. Sep Vanmarcke - 76 (6x top 5s inc. 3rd Flanders; 4th Roubaix)
3. Alejandro Valverde - 70 (1st Flèche Wallonne; 2nd Liège; 3rd Strade)
4. Fabian Cancellara - 68 (1st Flanders; 2nd San Remo; 3rd Roubaix)
5. Peter Sagan - 67 (1st E3 Harelbeke; 2nd Strade; 3rd Gent-Wevelgem)
6. Michael Kwiatkowski - 65 (1st Strade; 3rd Flèche Wallonne; 3rd Liège)
7. Philippe Gilbert - 55 (1st Brabantse Pijl; 1st Amstel Gold)
8. John Dagenklob - 43 (1st Gent-Wevelgem; 2nd Roubaix)
9. Tom Boonen - 42 (1st Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne)
T10. Simon Gerrans - 40 (1st Liège–Bastogne–Liège; 3rd Amstel Gold)
T10. Tyler Farrar - 40 (2nd Dwars Door; 2nd Scheldeprijs)

Niki Terpstra it is then with his wins at Dwars Door Vlaanderen and Paris Rouabix, and his second place at E3 helping him along. He never raced in the hillier classics showing that his form in the cobbled classics was enough to keep him on top throughout despite a mighty showing in the Ardennes from Alejandro Valverde that took him up to third.

Only coming in 4th was Fabian Cancellara, though he would have finished higher if I had awarded more points for Monuments or kept it to World Tour classics only. What is staggering about Cancellara's classic form, isn't his consistency over the past two years but the fact that in the the last fourteen combined Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix since 2010, he has finished on the podium a staggering 12 times.

And just for interests sake, the last man to win a cobbled classic and an Ardenne classic in the same year, showing a wide range of ability, was Moreno Argentin in 1990 when he won the Tour of Flanders and La Fleche Wallonne in the one season. That alone shows just how defined the two halves of the spring classics season really are. And for what it's worth, in 1995 Lauren Jalabert won the Milan-San Remo and Fleche Wallonne and later in 2000 Erik Zabel took Milan-San Remo and the Amstel Gold, but nobody since.

You have to go all the way back to 1984 to find the last man to win one of the monument cobble classics and the Ardennes' Liège-Bastogne-Liège monument, and that was Irishman Sean Kelly when he took the Paris-Rouabix to go with Liège. Before him it was Merckx who done that three times (Flanders-Liège in '69 and '75 and Roubaix-Liège in '73).

And while we're on the subjct of Merckx; just to highlight his genius, consider this about that Cobbles classic/Ardennes classic double in the same year not last achieved since 1990: Merckx done it on five different occasions. (He also won a Grand Tour and Monument classic in the same year six times, and often multiples of each in the same year).

So is there anyone in the peloton today capable of winning a Cobble and Ardennes classic in the same year anytime soon? It's hard to say. Perhaps Peter Sagan or Michael Kwiatkowski. Or Bradley Wiggins who having won the Tour in 2012 finished 10th in the first group behind the winner of the Paris-Roubaix and who looks set to once again focus on Paris-Roubaix next year.

An interesting little league table then and now spring is done and focus will turn towards the Grand Tour season and the sunshine of summer. I do love the diversity of the cycling season

Monday, April 14, 2014

Terpstra turns his good form into a huge victory at Paris-Roubaix

Here is a link that will show you what it takes to win the Paris-Rouabix. It is a ride by Niki Terpstra on his Strava account and it is his Paris Roubaix winning ride. The numbers are phenomenal and you only have to follow him on a daily basis to see the amount of miles he puts in during the winter to train for such a moment. That said, you didn't need Strava to know that Terpstra had the form, you only needed to look at his most recent results.

In the weeks leading up to Paris-Roubaix, Terpstra prepared by finishing 5th at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad on 1 March, winning the Dwars door Vlaanderen on 26 March, taking 2nd at the E3 Harelbeke on 28 March, and finishing 6th at the Tour of Flanders on 6 April.

And so much for those who thought a former track star turned stick-thin GC man like Sir Bradley Wiggins could not hack a power race like the Hell of the North. Wiggins was a part of the final selection before Terpstra made his move and finished with that group in ninth place. Perhaps disappointing to him personally to have come so close and not have taken advantage, but a superb result to mix it with the likes of Cancellara and Boonen and a sign of what he can achieve. He has said he'll be back for more in 2015.

But the day belonged to Terpstra.  While the big money was on Fabian Cancellara winning his fourth Hell of the North title, or on Tom Boonen winning an unprecedented fifth, it was Terpstra who went quietly about building himself as a contender and turning that contention into glory.

Monday, April 7, 2014

In the race of 'Vans' over the 'Bergs' it was the 'Can' who spoiled the Belgians party, again

It was a Tour of Flanders for the ages. Action packed with cobbled climbs, attacks, suffering and an historic win for Fabian Cancellara who not only won the race on back-to-back years but tied the record for three wins in Belgium's version of the World Cup final.

Second to Cancellara was BMC rider and Belgian, Greg Van Avermaet, and it was he who truly set the race alight in the closing stages over the toughest climbs. Van Avermaet went clear with 37 kilometres and several cobbled hills left and when he made his move he dragged Omega Pharma Quick Step domestique and outside bet, Stijn Vandenbergh with him.

Now, because Vandenbergh's team leader Tom Boonen, along with team-mates Zednek Stybar and Niki Terpstra were in the every-shrinking-by-the-berg group behind, Vandenbergh was ordered not to assist Van Avermaet. The thinking was that he would burn himself out working, they would be reeled in and one of the other three would go on the attack.

But it looked to me as though it had the making of a winning move had Vandenbergh been allowed to work. Other moves had been made before from several riders hoping for it to be the decisive one, but this one looked to be sticking. Bringing them back into the fold only opened the door once more for the likes of Peter Sagan and Cancellara. Indeed, OPQS's thinking was to let Sagan tire himself out chasing -- one part of the tactic that appeared to work -- but as the result would later show with Vandenbergh finishing forth and the best of his OPQS team, he should have been allowed to work with Van Avermaet.

That's why for me Van Avermaet was the man of the day, despite Cancellara's brilliantly timed ride to victory. He powered on the front with Vandenbergh glued to his wheel while the others tried to claw them back. Only once the small group behind were caught by the slightly larger group behind that -- finally giving an isolated Sagan some team support -- did the gap come drastically down.

Then, on the third and final run up the Oude Kwaremont, Cancellara put the hammer down in a style all his own and he blew the race apart. He dragged Sep Vanmarcke with him, just as he had done at last years Paris-Roubaix and they linked up with Vandenbergh who by this stage had been dropped by the impressive Van Avermaet.

I don't know about anyone else but I was all but yelling at my dodgy online stream for Van Avermaet to hang on as the three behind chipped away at his lead. He deserved to after the move he made and the way in which he'd ridden it. It wasn't to be though and soon the lead had become a group of four: The three 'Van's' of Belgium and the Suisse 'Can'. Behind Sagan was reeling. Dropped on that final climb his legs were showing the exhaustion of doing so much of the chasing and the race was slipping away up the road. A small group formed and tried to close the gap but by now it was too late.

They did get close and it allowed names like my pre-race pick to win, Niki Terpstra, and Milan-San Remo winner, Alexander Kristoff, to spring off the front, but not close enough. Indeed, the time gaps at the finish were only as close as they were because in the final 500 metres the quartet at the front almost came to a stand still as the game of cat and mouse began to see who would lead out the sprint. With little more than 200 metres left Cancellara kicked and Van Avermaet reacted.

On most days Van Avermaet would beat Cancellara in a sprint but after 259 kilometres and after all his previous efforts the Belgian couldn't draw alongside the reigning champion, two time winner, set to become champion again and three time winner. Cancellara threw the arms up and took a glorious victory in what was a brilliant race.

Result:

1. Fabian Cancellara (Trek Factory) in 6h 15'18

2. Greg Van Avermaet (BMC)

3. Sep Vanmarcke (Belkin)

4. Stijn Vandenbergh (OPQS) all at s.t.

5. Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) + 8"

6. Niki Terpstra (OPQS) + 18"

7. Tom Boonen (OPQS) + 35"

---

16. Peter Sagan (Cannondale) + 1'25"

Friday, April 4, 2014

Bergs, Cobbles, Rain, mud, blood and hard men - all this Sunday in Flanders, come one, come all

The Tour of Flanders, or the Ronde van Vlaanderen as the locals know it, is to the Belgians what the Super Bowl is to Americans and the Grand National to the British. A one day festival in which at the centre of the party is a sporting event. The main difference however is that the arena in which the Tour of Flanders takes place is hundreds of kilometres in length and for the real fans wanting to attend, you can, and it's free.

It is one of those races that every cycling fan should attend before they die, and one I have yet to tick off my long and generally unfulfilled cycling events bucket list. One day though, one day. An April spent travelling to and from the various classics across Belgium sounds like quite the trip.

The locals and those who do travel from abroad will line the route, drink a lot, have a lot of fun, and cheer loud as the race sweeps through the Flandrian countryside. The race starts in Brugge, heads west to the North Sea coast, travels south and then turns inland across the southern part of west Flanders, into east Flanders and the Flemish-Ardennes were the sharp little cobbled bergs will sort the men from the boys and find us a winner.

It's those famous cobbled climbs -- the Koppenberg and later the typically decisive Muur-Kapelmuur among many others -- where the selections will be made and the race won and lost. None of the climbs are exceptionally long -- most are between 500m and 1000m in length -- but they are exceptionally steep and narrow and it doesn't take much for a slip to force a stoppage in the group and leave some hiking their way to the top. It is why the fighting for position in the bunch is so intense leading into these sections so as not to get caught in a stoppage essentially ending your race, and the physical demands and bike handling skills required for this positioning is something that some riders cannot handle well.

So do not expect a large group to come to the line, except that is for the stragglers who haven't abandoned and who tootle home together. If it rains -- which it so often can in that part of the world -- then expect mud, blood and chaos.

The cobbles in the harsh conditions are for the hardest of hard men cyclists only. It is why there has been no winner of this race who has also been a Grand Tour winner since Eddy Merckx. The only previous Tour de France champion lining up in this race is Sir Bradley wiggins and he's only in there because potential Sky favorite Ian Stannard withdrew through injury.

Because of the cobbles, the bergs, the weather, and as a result, the likelihood of crashes, splits in the pack and mechanical trouble, it's extremely hard to predict a winner. Of the 200 starting, the majority have a shot at being in the final selections if they play it right and luck goes their way, and if they're strong, a good portion of those could very well claim the scalp.

That said, history tends to suggest that the strongest names in the sport are often at the fore and often winning and so luck only plays a small part. Strength, power, courage and bike handling skill all come into it. Fabian Cancellara is defending champion and has won it twice, Tom Boonen has won it three times, Stijn Devolder won it back-to-back in 2008 and 2009, and the great Lion of Flanders, Johan Museeuw won it three times, was second three times, and third twice.

Below is a list of ten names from which I think the winner will emerge. The names will seem obvious, but in a race like the the Ronde van Vlaanderen it's about the only way you can predict.

Fabian Cancellara (Trek Factory): Defending champion and two time winner, Cancellara's big target for 2014 is probably a shot at the World hour record but results at the spring classics fall right in behind that. He hasn't had great results so far this year (by his standards) which suggests he's either saving himself for this weekend, or will come into the weekend desperate to prove he's still the strong man of the Monument classics.

Peter Sagan (Cannondale): It was Sagan and Cancellara for the win last year when the bg man from Switzerland blew the young Slovak away on the final climb and rode alone to victory. Sagan has yet to win a Monument and the pressure will only grow until he does. Flanders is a race perfectly suited to his ability and being one year older and one year more experienced than last year you have to think this could be the first of what I have to think will be many Monument classic victories.

Tom Boonen (OPQS): The peoples favorite you can expect to see a lot of flags flying for Boonen. He didn't finish last year but was working his way back from injury. He has won it three times however though in 2012 it was the first time he had won it since 2006 when he completed back-to-back victories. Boonen's biggest victory so far this season was at Kuurne–Brussels–Kuurne, but make no mistakes, the Belgian's season starts Sunday.

Zdenek Štybar (OPQS): He hasn't won a big classic before but anyone who has seen the 28 year old Czech race knows he's due a breakout ride. Last year at Paris-Roubiax it looked as though that day had come when he found himself in the final selection of riders only to suffer a crash that ended his hopes. He started this year off by going off road to win the World Cyclo-Cross Championships and will be hoping the bike handling skills and strength required in those conditions will pay off for him at Flanders.

Niki Terpstra (OPQS): The third Omega Pharma Quick Step rider on the list, Terpstra has had a fine start to the 2014 season. He won the Tour of Qatar and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad earlier in the year and in the past ten days was 1st at the Dwars door Vlaanderen (26 March), 2nd at E3 Harelbeke (28 March) and 4th at the Three Days of De Panne (3 April). And the win at Dwars door Vlaanderen could prove the best insight to his form for it is across similar roads to what they'll be on for Sunday and is an ideal warm up race. The only thing going against him is his team-leader is Tom Boonen who he'll surely be expected to work for unless Boonen comes apart.

Greg Van Avermaet (BMC): He's had his fair share of top 10 finishes in these spring classics but has yet to crack the podium of a Monument classic. The closest he came was a 4th in the Tour of Flanders two years ago and a 4th at the Paris-Roubaix last year. Yet with his team-mate Philippe Gilbert not entering the Tour of Flanders, he will be the BMC team's biggest hope for a result and while he might be an outsider to win the race, expect to see him very much in the mix when the real racing begins.

Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky): When Boasson Hagen broke into the sports big-time in 2008 many felt he would go on to one day dominate the classics, yet it has never really happened. Some feel Team Sky's dedication to the Grand Tours has held him back, though this year his team do seem more committed to the one-day classics, determined to get a Monument victory under their belts. Ian Stannard won the lesser known Omloop Het Nieuwsblad earlier in the year after Boasson Hagen looked for a while to be in the winning break, but Stannard isn't here this weekend and expectations to finally get that big result will fall on Boasson Hagen. He's due that big scalp one of these days and on Sunday you can expect him to be there or there abouts, and at Flanders that's all you have to be going into the final stages.

Geraint Thomas (Team Sky): The Welshman has never had a big result in a major spring classic race, that is except for the 10th place in the 2011 Tour of Flanders, but his 3rd place at the E3 Harelbecke has shown signs that the form could be there to mix it up this weekend. He may be here primarily to support Boasson Hagen, but should the Norwegian fall short and without Stanndard available, Thomas could be the man looked for to pick up the pieces. A cool wet tough race might suit him nicely.

Alexander Kristoff (Katusha): The hard man Norwegian looks perfect for this kind of race. He proved his ability in a Monument classic by winning this years Milan-San Remo in the driving rain. On top of that he was 4th in last years Tour of Flanders with 8th and 9th place finishes at the Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix respectively. He'll be the big hope of the Katusha squad though the last man to win the Paris Roubaix and Tour of Flanders in one year was Eddy Merckx in 1975 when 'Bye Bye Baby' by the Bay City Rollers was the UK number 1 song.

Jurgen Roelandts (Lotto Belisol): The third Belgian on the list will probably be seen as the most unlikely to win of the three, but he shouldn't be ruled out either. At 28 Roelandts is hitting his prime and the classic races are his strong suit. He was 3rd in last years Tour of Flanders behind Cancellara and should have the ability to go well again this weekend.

Also, there are three Canadians in the race. Svein Tuft (Orica GreenEdge), Hugo Houle (AG2R La Mondiale) and Antoine Duchesne (Europcar). None are expected to threaten for the win, but then again, nobody is out of it before it starts.

Prediction: Niki Terpstra

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

UCI announce F1 KERS-like turbo boosters on bikes

The UCI have announced this morning that they are to bring in an F1 KERS-like system on bikes next year. Riders, via energy recovered from pedaling, are to get one 250m / 100 km/h boost to use per race except in the final kilometre. Mark Cavendish and Jens Voigt have already expressed their anger at the novel approach on twitter, but the UCI contest that it is in place to fight the early on set of mechanical speed doping.

More to follow shortly, including reaction from UCI press conference at noon (ET) time...