Friday, January 27, 2012

Will 2012 be the year of British Cycling?

2012 has the potential to be a huge year for British Cycling. With both Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome proving last year they can podium in a grand tour and with the 2012 Tour de France route suited better than ever towards one or both of them competing for the GC, and with Mark Cavendish going for green again, not to mention the Olympic road race, and a stack of track riders looking to aid to Britain's gold haul, this could be the year Britain becomes the best cycling nation on earth. To have said that not even ten years ago would have brought mocking and ridicule from all angles.

When Team Sky's boss Dave Brailsford popped up and claimed that he hoped to have a Tour de France winner within five years of setting up a team the mocking begun in earnest. But what nobody knew then that I can only assume Brailsford himself seen was that Brad Wiggins was more than just a man who went very fast for a distance of 1,500 meters around an oval strip of wood. Wiggins hadn't offered much in his early Tour de France days except to be the next Chris Boardman for Britain in prolgues, but in 2009 that all changed when he blew away all expectations and finished fourth into Paris.

Wiggins didn't ride for Sky then -- there was no Team Sky -- but Brailsford knew his man and immediately got him on board. Following Britain's dominant display on the track at the Beijing Olympics, in which Brailsford was the grand architect, Team Sky became his virtual British road team. Yes there are a handful of imports including the uber-talented Edvald Boisson Hagen, but there's no doubt who this team is built around...as in what nation the team is built around?



For that matter, the Tour de France route would appear to be built around the team also. There are few super high peaks that would hinder Wiggins and aid Evans, less summit finishes than in recent years to the no doubt disappointment of Contador and there is the return of two long time-trials as well as the opening prologue to really stick a spanner into the works of the pure climbers such as the Schlecks.

As to who the team itself is built around, that is generating much early season debate after the recruitment of Mark Cavendish. The fastest man in the world, Tour de France Green Jersey winner and recently crowned World Road Race Champion, Cavendish has become a house hold name in Britain. He proved that by winning the BBC Sports Personality of the Year award this past December, something else I'd have mocked you for ten years ago had you suggested that one day a cyclist would win that award, never mind twice in four years. Because of the status of Cavendish and his ability to win any race that gets into the final kilometer with the bunch altogether, the question asked is whether Team Sky can deal with the ambitions of both Wiggins and Cavendish, and throw in Froome for good measure?

Will Brailsford be able to create a scenario whereby Sky can chase down breaks and set up Cavendish for sprints without wearing down the energies of Wiggins and Froome and their support men in the mountains, along the way? Can Cavendish survive on say a five man train, of which he is one, while leaving Wiggins, Froome and perhaps one other to conserve themselves? If Cavendish struggles to win races early and starts to look for more help will Brailsford stick to the game plan, or more interestingly, will Wiggins and Froome be willing to chip in? Cavendish will want the green jersey but make no mistake about it, it shouldn't come before a shot at yellow.

And what of Froome and Wiggins if both are strong going through the mountains? Will a team leader be assigned or will they be allowed to race? What if the team leader cracks, shall the other press on? We've seen how Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador's relationship went in such a scenario, though it must be pointed out Contador went on to win that Tour regardless. And remember Hinault-LeMond in '86?

But why not? Why can't it work? Team Telekom in 1996 won both the sprint crown with Erik Zabel and the GC with Bjarne Riis, albeit as a team doped to the gills. Does it take such a team to manage and handle both competitions? These days when we presume the sport to be as clean as it's been in many generations, I don't see why it isn't possible?

Cavendish has proven before he can win sprints without the train and while his team will be looked to as the team to claw back breaks meaning Cavendish might have to sacrifice a couple of stage wins, he can still do enough to take green. Wiggins and Froome will no doubt sort it out on the higher mountains and will soon figure out who is going strongest and if a designated number one is established, one can certainly rely on the other as a kind of super-domestique that other teams could only dream of.

Which leads us onto the Olympic games just a week after the Tour ends. So long as the above mentioned protagonists can recover and recover fast, Cavendish will look to a group of Brit's that probably won't include Wiggins -- who will be saving himself for the time trial -- to help him to the road race gold, followed by the high expectations of the track team. It's the track team that Britain is really pinning its hopes on to bring in a slew of medals and these games have been the vocal point of British cycling for over half a decade now. Everything is geared towards a Beijing style encore and any kind of slip up, let down, loss of form, or choke under pressure, doesn't much bare thinking about.

Which leaves us with only the outlandish possibility that Cavendish wins a couple of stages, the green jersey and later the Olympic road race title; that Wiggins takes the yellow and the Olympic time trial gold; Froome wins a stage of the Tour and takes the King of the Mountains prize; and a weight of gold similar to that in Fort Knox is won by the British men and woman on the track. It's at this point Britain should announce its withdrawal from the sport having reached the peak and with no desire to come back down again.