Late musings and predictions on the 100th Giro d'Italia

I have been so busy lately that I almost forgot about the Giro starting last weekend. I assumed it began on the Saturday when in fact it was a Friday start. Aside from short clips I seen nothing of the racing. And it was only today, on Monday, when I would finally have the chance to follow it. So of course there would be no race to watch. That Friday start was so they could transfer from Sardinia to Sicily today.

Scenery aside, it doesn't sound like I have missed too much. The first few stages were flat and belonging to the sprinters. It's tomorrow when things will kick off with a mighty summit finish at Mount Etna. It could be explosive!

From then on there will be few times when missing stages will go unpunished. This 100th edition of the Giro has got a brilliant route traversing most of the country. There are some savage mountain stages packed in toward the back in. The lineup of contenders is long and distinguished. Indeed, on paper, this has the makings of the best Grand Tour of the lot. I'm not sure if its the unflappable Chris Froome that has turned so many off targeting the Tour in July? Either way, a lot of them have shown up here. Nairo Quintana included.

Since the race is already underway I will skip any in depth preview. What I will do though is predict my top five finishers and see how well, or how bad, I go. And this isn't easy. There's a few big hitters in Quintana and Nibali but there are a bunch of others who have never won a Grand Tour but who are capiable. Then there are more who on their day could all challenge for a place on the podium. My best option here would be to put all those names in a hat and pull out five names. I won't do that though...or so I'll tell you.

2017 Giro d'Italia top 5 predictions on GC

1. Vincenzo Nibali
The reigning champion is being written off by many this year, but they wrote him off last year too. Being the 100th edition of the Giro he will be very motivated and it also helps the race visits his home in Sicily. Nibali has been quiet this year but that is down to the singular focus in which he is approaching this race. It's all in on the Giro whereas that isn't the case for Quintana. This might make the difference.

2. Thibaut Pinot
The Frenchman will enjoy the lack of pressure racing in Italy by comparrison to France. We've seen what he's capable of in that pressure cooker so he could raise his game further here. He's due another good Grand Tour and his time-trialing has improved in recent years. He'll be consistent, won't lose too much time anywhere and as a result will find himself on the podium in Milan. He might even leapfrog Quintana into second in the final time-trial.

3. Nairo Quintana
The shock prediction for there will be nobody surprised if he goes on to win it. But Nibali's focus and Quintana's eye on the Tour might make the difference. He's got one bad day in him I reckon and he could lose time in the time-trials...though likely not a lot to the Italian. It's in the later mountain stages when Nibali will try every trick in the book to catch Quintana out that might swing the balance.

4. Bauke Mollema
He's strong against the clock and he's excellent in the mountains. He's very consistent. Granted he has a bad day in him, but so does everyone else vying for a top five placing and they all could have one. He'll conserve time well in the high mountains and make up some ground against the clock. Countrymen Kruijswijk and Dumoulin can do this too, but I'm not sure they're as well rounded as Mollema.

5. Ilnur Zakarin
Another rider who won't lose a lot of time in the time-trials and who can ride well in the mountains. He's due a high placing in a Grand Tour and might have had it last year but for a couple of clumsy crashes when it mattered most.

Note I have left the Sky duo of Mikel Landa and Geraint Thomas off the list. I'm not sold on the former as a long term GC contender and Thomas is completely unproven as a team leader. I'd love to be wrong about that though, especially on Thomas. That said, one of them will crack the top ten at least.

I didn't pick Nairo Quintana to win. I'm not convinced the Giro-Tour double is achievable these days, though he is one who could, and I still think that deep down his key target is the Tour. Can he pull back though and not burn himself out chasing glory here? It might be hard and if he cannot then he could well prove me wrong by going on to win this. If he wants it, he'll win it.

There are names like Dumoulin, Kruijswijk, Jungels and Adam Yates who I have also left off. All ambitious and you have to think one of the two Dutchmen, along with Mollema, are due a podium placing, if not a win by now. How close have all three came in recent Grand Tours before a late collapse? Jungels is a future Grand Tour winner and along with Zakarin and the three Dutchmen could go well in the time-trials. Yates will lose too much time in that discipline to crack the top five. And it's the two time-trials that could throw a spanner into the works of the climbers. The first comes after stage 10 and is a hilly 39.8km. The second is a flat 29.3km on the final day. Serious time will have to won in the high mountains if you don't rate your race of truth abilities.

Tomorrow on Etna is the first opportunity for these time gains. It will give us a better picture about the form of each rider. Coming so early in the race and after a rest day, it will also catch one or two out. But in coming early it also leaves plenty of time for those who struggle to recover. Especially those who have a time-trial in them. But by the time they summit Etna several names I've mentioned here might already be out of contention. Tuesday's stage four and everything that will follow will be compelling to watch.