Monday, October 24, 2016

A unique looking Tour route for 2017

I've said it before, but I'll say it again the annual unveiling of the Tour de France route. It is like being a kid on Christmas morning who gets to see all his presents but can't open them for nine months. Yet it is always worth a good look and we analyse it and make predictions about how it might go. It's a nonsense, but it's fun anyway. For a few moments it feels like it is a little closer to starting than it is.

So what do I make of it? Well here is in a nutshell what I seen when I first took a look. A route that appears closer to a figure of eight than a circuit around France. A course that hits all five major mountain ranges in France. Which incorporates just three summit finishes and only 36km of individual time-trialing, including a 13km opening day race against the clock.

My initial thoughts when I type that out again is that the door has opened to several pretenders to become contenders, though some of pure time-trialists that have recently felt a belief in winning a Grand Tour, like Tom Dumoulin, may stay clear. I think the lack of summit finishes might suit someone like Alejandro Valverde. An opportunist like Alberto Contador, as he has become in recent years, might also get in on the act. Vincenzo Nibali could well suit the unpredictable racing this type of route could bring. Romain Bardet  will feel he has a shot on a course where descending might be as important as climbing. Esteban Chaves too might suit such a hilly course but without a large number of summit finishes. In November, the list is long.

Do not look too far beyond Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana though. The Colombian will be glad of the fewer time-trialing kilometres, while Froome will also point to the way in which he raced last years Tour as to why he can survive on just three summit finishes with which to gain time going upward. The three mountain top finishes are brutal in their difficulty and serious time could be won and lost on those three days but opportunities will exist elsewhere.

I think one of the reasons the organisation picked this kind of route with so little in the way of summit finishes, and such opportunities elsewhere, was to try shake up the racing. Too many complained at the recent Tour of a searing pace being set day after day, limiting the action to the final few kilometres of those mountain top finishes to try and win the Tour. This kind of route may force riders to think outside the box. That one stage of just 100km in length could be the joker in the pack.

Beyond contention to win it, the sprinters will be delighted. There are as many as eight potential sprint finish days. Mark Cavendish will be licking his chops at the possibility of breaking Eddy Merckx's all-time Tour stage wins record. Cavendish is just four shy of it.

For now though, we'll have to wait and see. The current season has just finished. A whole winter awaits and a new calendar of racing is yet to come. Then we'll see who targets which events, who has form, who is healthy and how this race might be approached. What the route has done, as always, is get us talking about the Tour de France and get us excited in November. For now though we must put this fine toy back in its box, put it back under the tree and leave it there for nine more months. What a shame, but we'll be glad come July 2017.

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Rider of the week / month

I have to say when the world championships ended and the riders scattered like the desert wind back to whence they came, I thought that was the last we had seen of the cycling season. I admit it, I've been poor in keeping up with the season schedule so I had completely forgotten that some riders would stay in the desert to contest the Abu Dhabi over the past week. Only the four stages mind you. Three for sprinters (Giacomo Nizzolo and Mark Cavendish x2), and one summit finish for climbers (Tanel Kangert). It was that non-stprint stage that ensured the Estonian Kangert took the overall victory and thus win my rider of the week prize.

I have to think that will be the last such prize of 2016. I've just looked at the calendar and there are no major races left for the season. As such I can also award the rider of the month for October. There's been a handful of big races and several smaller races and a diverse list of winners. Mark Cavendish won two races in Abu Dhabi, he was 2nd in the Worlds and 6th at Paris-Tour. Peter Sagan of course retained his world title. But I'm going with Esteban Chaves for becoming the first Colombian to win a monument, at Il Lombardia.

So only Chris Froome won a monthly prize more than once when he shone at the Dauphine in June and the Tour in July. Seven riders won the rider of the week more than once but nobody more than twice.