Pre-Tour musings and predictions

The days leading into the Tour are spectacular for debate, surmising, and predicting and of course this year is no different. Not with Chris Froome going for three; with Nairo Quintana another year older, another year wiser and on a course that should suit him; with Alberto Contador out for one last bid for glory; with Giro champion Vincenzo Nibali showing up -- allegedly to help Fabio Aru -- who himself is still searching for his form; and with a handful of French riders seemingly on the cusp of breaking through to potentially win a Tour. And that's only scratching at the surface. There's all the other jersey's, the sprint battles, Sagan watch, the time-trials, Cancellara's last Tour, the individual stage battles as the GC gets whittled down as the rest turn to single day glory, and others who might fancy their chances for a top five finish, if not a podium placing.

There's little point me getting into all of that though...I'd probably be wrong with much of it as a Tour in hindsight so brutally exposes ones pre-race thoughts each year, and besides there's a stack of good guides for sale, not to mention podcasts, online previews, apps and that ever faithful pre-Tour information centre: Twitter.

Still, I do feel obliged to stick my neck out and predict a top ten plus the winner of the other jerseys to see how I go. I did quite well when I predicted the Giro outcome in May, so don't quite take this with a grain of salt...but don't go rushing off to your bookie with this list as any kind of form guide either.


YELLOW JERSEY:

1. Nairo Quintana
The Colombian is due. He hasn't raced a lot this year, putting his entire focus on the Tour and with a mountainous route that will suit him and age on his side, this should be his year. The final week of the Tour is stacked with climbing and that is when he comes to the fore.

2. Chris Froome
Froome will be favourite because he's defending champion and because he's done all the pre-Tour stuff right. He won the Criterium du Dauphine, and each time he does that he wins the Tour, but he only wins Tours on even years so it won't happen this time.

3. Thibaut Pinot
The Frenchman has had an excellent pre-season and has really improved upon his time-trialing. The two in front may well be in a class of their own but Pinot has the beating of everyone else on his day.

4. Alberto Contador
Contador has put all his preparation into winning this Tour, but let's face it, he isn't what he was. His climbing brilliance has gone and he's often left looking for opportunist moves to break his rivals. Since returning from his ban in 2012, Contador has not finished a Tour on the podium, and won't here.

5. Romain Bardet
He had a very impressive Criterium du Dauphine, finishing second behind Froome. Granted he lost a little time earlier in the race and was given limited freedom to escape on one of the mountain stages, but still, he had to come through and he did. 6th at the 2014 Tour and 9th last year, he will finally crack the top 5 this time.

6. Fabio Aru
His form has been suspect to say the least. He lost a lot of time at the Criterium du Dauphine but then took a specacular individual win on the 3rd stage. Otherwise it's been a quiet season for him but I've a feeling he'll find his game for the Tour, but not enough to threaten like he did at the Vuelta.

7. Tejay Van Garderen
The duel-leadership with Richie Porte will be fascinating to follow to see whether it works to beat their rivals or whether it results in a rivalry between them. I think Van Garderen is the better over a three week Grand Tour and should be consistent in France. He might win a stage and he'll hang tough in the mountains but there's a lot of depth in front of him.

8. Dan Martin
Riding in his first year for Etixx Quick-Step, Martin has had a strong spring in the week long Tours. Third at the Volta a Catalunya with a stage win and then third at the Cirterium du Dauphine with four top four finishes over the eight days of racing. He was superb in the mountains and if he can continue or build on that form he should have his first Grand Tour top ten.

9. Warren Barguil
He rode his first Tour last year finishing 14th and should go better this year. He was third at the Tour de Suisse a few weeks ago and has had impressive showings at other races on a relatively light schedule that should allow the 24 year old to be fresh for July. I expect a stage win and a competitive showing in the mountains.

10. Pierre Rolland
Somehow Rolland will lose time early or have one bad day before picking himself up to win a stage, perhaps challenge for the mountains jersey and finish in and around the top 10 as he so often does. 10th, 8th, 11th and 10th in four of the last five Tours, Rolland leaves you wondering how far he could go if he didn't have those one or two bad days.

Notable absences: Vincenzo Nibali (having won the Giro I'm not sure he'll finish here...I hope I'm wrong); Alejandro Valverde (will work for Quintana and be tired after the Giro); Richie Porte (Grand Tours seem a week and a half too long for him).

GREEN POINTS JERSEY:

Peter Sagan
There's nobody else in the equasion. Assuming he doesn't fall ill or get hurt in a crash, Sagan will win this contest again. Sure Marcel Kittel will win some early sprint stages, Cavendish might grab one, and Andre Greipel will grab his obligatory one or two, but Sagan will be a constant presence in the top 5 of non-high mountain stages and on those mountain days he'll go up the road to sweep up the bonus points on the road before settling back in the grupetto. Sagan is untouchable in this competition.

POLKA-DOT MOUNTAINS JERSEY:

Pierre Rolland
This competition is made for someone like Rolland if he actually went for it. Another who should give it a crack is Dan Martin. I expect the likes of Joaqium Rodriguez to focus on it given his GC days are over, but it could also fall into the lap of a Quintana or Froome due to their presence at the front of the race in the high mountains rather than any desire to target the jersey.

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And so, let the talking stop and the racing start. Three weeks of drama, action, excitement and controversy. There will be blood, sweat and tears...there will be talking points every day. It's one giant rolling three week long reality TV show with so much to digest it can sometimes feel overwhelming, but yet you never want it to end. There will be battles for stages, for jerseys, for the top 10, the top 5, the podium and the yellow jersey. There will be pseudo scientists, allegations, road side idiots and perhaps a further shift into the world of mechanical doping. We'll hope that such idiots are kept to the fringes but no doubt their noise will generate discussion of another type, though lets hope the riders behave and don't add fuel to that fire. Let's hope that all that drama, action and excitement is left squarely to within the race itself, and lets hope our three week Christmas is as good as ever...that we're left in late July wondering what to do with ourselves...that this Tour goes down as one of the greats. This is the greatest sporting event on the planet...it's the only one whos stadium is that of an entire country and whose grand stands are curb sides and mountain sides and don't require a ticket never mind a fee to watch. It's a sporting test at its finest, that is both beautiful and brutal and never gets hard to watch.

Enjoy the 2016 Tour de France.