Last gasp Giro d'Italia preview

I guess I've taken my eye of the cycling ball over the last week because while I knew the Giro was getting underway this weekend, I thought it started tomorrow, so imagine my surprise to be sitting on the bus this morning, reading the sports new on my phone and seeing something about a live blog for the opening time-trial of the 2016 Giro d'Italia. Yes, it's already underway, though just a glorified prologue at 9.8km in Apeldoorn in the Netherlands.

Which means I can pin together some quick 'pre' Giro musings without feeling like I've got some inside knowledge off the back of a result. Shy of someone crashing out of completely falling apart over the 9.8km course, there will be no implications to the overall classification and the sprinters will be keeping their powder dry for another day. Indeed the only real question that may be answered by the time I publish this is whether Fabian Cancellara has pulled on his first pink jersey as race leader by winning the TT? Answers at the bottom...

So quick look at the route: Three days in the Netherlands, one for Cancellara, two for the sprinters, before a glorified rest day/travel day (much like the Giro when it came to Northern Ireland a few years ago) as the race relocates to the south of Italy and begins in earnest with a couple of lumpy stages that might still suit the sprinters but will allow for a breakaway to perhaps survive before the first summit finish on stage 6. Then we'll be down to the nitty-gritty and have an early idea of who isn't in contention for general classification contention.

The race continues to head northward up the centre of the country in a relatively straight line to a another individual time-trial in Chianti, just south of Florence were they will then have their second rest day. This time-trial is 40.5km in length and will put some serious time gaps into the contenders ahead of the high mountains. The following six stages up to the third rest day get steadily worse. A rolling stage, two super flat days, two days of climbing, the second of which has six difficult climbs, before the third time-trial, an uphill climb of 9km (with 1.8km flat leading into the climb) at 8.3% average grade.

By now the contenders list should be down to less than half a dozen, perhaps even two or three if Vincenzo Nibali isn't already six or seven minutes to the good. And so those left standing will have six more days to fight it out while the rest left racing will look to pinch stage wins. Except for the final stage, all of them have climbs and a few of them are brutal.

So who fares likeliest to contend? Well, here are ten that will be looking to make their mark if all goes to plan:

GC CONTENDERS (in roughly about the order I expect them to finish!):

Vincenzo Nibali
The bookies favourite, and rightly so, he was the winner in 2013 the last time he competed. His 2016 form has been mixed, winning the Tour of Oman but managing just 21st at the Giro de Trentino and 51st at Liège - Bastogne - Liège. Still, he knows how to peak at the right time.

Mikel Landa
Last years Giro was his big breakthrough and this is his first big target as a new Sky rider. Likely the biggest threat to Nibali and while he has only entered three short stage races this year he's steadily got ebtter winning the Giro del Trentino a few weeks ago.

Alejandro Valverde
Mr. Consistent, but this is the first time in his long career that he has entered the Giro, so new ground. Still, form is good, as usual, with overall wins at Ruta Del Sol and Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (in which he won two of the three stages), and a first at La Flèche Wallonne.

Rigoberto Urán
He's had two stage wins at the Giro before and was in the mix to win the race in 2014 before Nairo Quintana stepped up. He still finished 2nd that year however and will have ambitions of a podium this year. He's had a quiet 2016 but the time trials at this Giro should suit him.

Rafal Majka
Without Contador here team leadership falls on the Pole who finished 7th and 6th in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Expectations will be for him to crack the top five or even a podium placing though I'd certainly expect him to win at least one stage.

Tom Dumoulin
The big Dutchman was a revelation at last years Vuelta, opening everyone's eyes -- including his own -- to his GT potential. This years route with three time-trials should really suit him and a bid for a top five, and I expect him to be on the front foot early.

Esteban Chaves
Another break through performer from last years Vuelta in which he won a stage and finished 5th overall, and yet another big Colombian talent. It's been a very quiet 2016 so his form is unknown and so could be anywhere from competing for the top 5 to hunting for stages.

Ryder Hesjedal
The 2012 winner has a real love affair with the Giro and just when it seemed he might be a fading force he finished an impressive 5th last year. He's been invisible all year but all training has revolved around this Giro. Expect to see him get stronger with each passing week.

Andrey Amador
Had a brilliant Giro in 2015 in which he finished 4th overall to the surprise of many and so it's no surprise to see him back again looking for more. How much his ambitions will be stifled by the presense of Valverde on his team remains to be seen but a top 10 is surely achievable.

Steven Kruijswijk
A very consistent rider, Kruijswijk will fly under the Dutch radar with Dumoulin present, but is an excellent climber and has a real knack for finding his way into the top 10 in general classifications. Indeed he finished 8th at the Giro in 2011 and 7th in 2015.


SPRINTERS (apologies to anyone I might have left out; sprinters are the sensitive sort!):

Marcel Kittel
It was a rough 2015 for Kittel, but he's back and he's finding form. Two stages and the GC at the Dubai Tour, two stages at the Volta ao Algarve, a stage at Three Day of De Panne and one at the Tour de Romandie leads me to believe he'll be the man to beat on any flat stage here.

André Greipel
The big German will take umbrage at me saying Kittel is the man to be for he too is in good form. He's also showed himself to be solid on light-hilly courses and so might factor in a sprints in which his rivals fail to reach the finish still in the peloton.

Caleb Ewan
Last years Vuelta was the young Australian sprint proteges first Grand Tour and while he only lasted 10 stages, he won one. The aim here is to add to that GT win list and the opening days in the Netherlands will suit him perfectly. Beyond that finishing in Torino will be a goal.

Elia Viviani
I was going to go with three but it would have been harsh to leave Sky's Italian sprinter off for he's had a good 2016 with his most recent sprint win coming at the Three days of De Panne in which out gunned Marcel Kittel and Alexander Kristoff.

HEROS (two men very much worth a mention):

Matteo Tosatto
He won't be Arnaud Demare's biggest fan (see this years Milan-San Remo) but how can you not admire the man who in starting this Giro will begin his 32nd Grand Tour over a 20 year career from which he has finished 27. A remarkable achievement by the 42 year old Italian.

Adam Hansen
The Australian hard man (who cemented that title with his ride through the pain barrier while badly injured at last years Tour de France) will look to complete his 14th straight Grand Tour dating back to the 2011 Vuelta. An astonishing statistic.

GOODBYE:

Fabian Cancellara
It's his final season and as a result he is hoping to pull on the pink jersey for the first time, with the first stage time-trial giving him the best opportunity. Cancellara has only been here twice before in 2007 and 2009 when he abandoned after 11 stages on each occassion.