I want to quickly highlight the status of three competitions. None official, though to win one of them may be to win the Tour. We'll start with that one.
Coming into this Tour we talked of the 'big-four' of Chris Froome, Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana, but last week the American, Tejay Van Garderen was quick to claim that he deserved to be mentioned along with them and that it was less of a 'fab-four' and more a 'five-piece boyband'. I think Van Garderen, to his shame, mentioned the Backstreet Boys.
So how does this 'big five' stack up 16 stages in and on this second rest day with four big mountain stages left?
1. Chris Froome in 64h 47' 16"
2. Nairo Quintana @ 3' 10"
3. Tejay Van Garderen @ 3' 32"
5. Alberto Contador @ 4' 23"
7. Vincenzo Nibali @ 7' 49"
Froome is looking solid though four of the five make the top five overall with Alejandro Valverde continuing to infiltrate in fourth place. Given that he is working in service of Quintana and Geraint Thomas (in 6th) is working in service of Froome, it's not inconceivable that come Paris the 'fabulious five' make up the top five places on GC.
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Next up is the Frenchmen. Last year the French had their best Tour in years with JC Peraud coming second, Thibaut Pinot third and Romain Bardet sixth. This year they have a single stage win via Alexis Vuillermoz at the Mûr-de-Bretagne and they also have the talented young Warren Barguil racing for a high finish on GC. So how's it looking?
1. Warren Barguil (10th overall @ 11' 3")
2. Tony Gallopin @ 59" (11th @ 12' 2")
3. Romain Bardet @ 2' 7" (12th @ 13' 10")
4. Pierre Rolland @ 4' 52" (15th @ 15' 55")
5. Thibaut Pinot @ 20' 51" (19th @ 31' 54")
6. Alexis Vuillermoz @ 25' 26" (20th @ 36' 29")
7. Jean-Christophe Peraud @ 1h 13' 23" (50th @ 1h 24' 26")
Peraud certainly won't be contending for a podium this year, and Vuillermoz is likely to lose time in the Alps. Gallopin is a big surprise to still be this high up after the Alps and with Bardet, Rolland and Pinot all going stage hunting over the next few days, if not in search of the polka-dot jersey at the same time, expect them to move up in the GC and thus in this list. Barguil has been superb so far and expect him to continue riding strong. It would be a surprise if one or two of those on this list didn't crack the top 10 overall come Paris. (For what it's worth, the seven mentioned here aren't necessarily the best seven Frenchmen on GC but those we might have expected to finish well before the Tour began).
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And finally (fittingly!) the race for the Lanterne Rouge. I know there's a kind of perverse prestige to finishing last on the Tour as it shows you still finished and battled through the mountains and against the time-limit, but I'm not so sure anyone actually tries to finish last. Or perhaps they do, but I might be exaggerating it a little to call it a 'race'.
Here's how it's shaping up, in reverse order naturally and with their time ahead of last place.
169. Sam Bennett
168. Sébastien Chavanel @ 16' 2"
167. Svein Tuft @ 24' 53"
166. Bryan Nauleau @ 25' 10"
165. Michael Matthews @ 29' 21"
164. Kenneth Van Bilsen @ 31' 34"
Froome would love a lead like this and if Sam Bennett can suffer over four more days of mountains and fight off time elimination he stands a good chance of becoming the 2015 Lanterne Rouge.
Following the Tour I'll come back to these three lists and see how it all shook out.