The Hell of the North in the Tour de France

This is one that every cycling fan will have had circled on their calendars since the race route was unveiled late last year. A mini-Paris-Roubaix within the Tour de France; nowhere to hide for the mountain goat favorites hoping to win this Tour and all sorts of chaos set to ensue to the misery of those riding and the entertainment of us watching.

They may have removed two of the nine sectors (five and seven, with seven being the only five star sector for difficulty) due to overnight rain reducing the combined length of pave from 18.2km to 13.8km but this stage still contains the potential to be as pivotal as any mountain stage. Some big contenders will lose their shot at the tour today and beyond them is the potential for an epic individual stage as the toughest of the tough on bikes battle it out to win the day.

Luck will play a big part, of course. A badly timed puncture could ruin everything for you regardless of how well you are going, and it is that as much as the conditions and the cobbles themselves that have to be putting the fear into the likes of Froome, Contador and Nibali. A spill here could leave you in a mud and blood filled gutter watching your tour hopes vanish up the pave.

Only in the watching of it do we have any idea how each rider will approach it. Thinking about it now before it starts raises far to many possibilities to comprehend. When the likes of Cancellara, Sagan, Terpstra, Degenklob, Vanmarcke or Van Avermaet start to put the hammer down, do the likes of Froome, Conador, Nibali and Rui Costa try to follow? Do they see the benefit of being around experienced pave riders like that? Or do they watch one another? Does one see the chance to gain time and try to attack and if so how do the others react? Or do they mark one another too closely, waiting for bad luck to open a door rather than opportunism? We'll see.

The question for Froome after his crash and wrist injury yesterday: Do you limit your loses and accept a minute or two lost is nothing to panic about, or do you risk further pain in trying to keep contact? Hard to know because I don't know how badly he is hurt but it'll be fascinating to keep track of. Froome will have a strong pave rider in Geraint Thomas to marshal him and likewise Contador with Daniele Bennati.

One or two favorites are sure to run into trouble today be it via mechanical issues or a crash and some of them are certain to lose time, but on the other hand, one or two of these GC boys who typically avoid the big spring Flanders classics will prove themselves to be better at this kind of racing than we, and they, thought. Assuming bad luck is avoided, I fancy Nibali to probably do the best among the favourites. Nibali and Alejandro Valverde.

I wish more of them would take a run at these races in the spring but the risk of a Tour threatening injury from a crash is too great. Sir Bradley Wiggins is the only recent Tour de France winner to take a crack at the Paris-Rouabaix in recent years -- this year -- and he finished 10th. It's a shame he isn't here today.

That said for all its comparisons to the Paris-Roubaix, this stage is still 100km shorter. Today's stage has seven cobbled sectors after those two were removed due to bad weather totaling 13.8 kilometres. Roubaix contains 28 sections totaling more than 50 kilometres. The comparison cannot really be made. Still, it's a huge challenge, especially in bad weather, and while it won't quite have the mind and body zapping brutality of Paris-Roubaix, it'll still make a big difference in this years Tour de France.

My tip is Peter Sagan and given he's only 2 seconds off the yellow jersey this morning, he could very well be in it by tonight even if he doesn't win the stage, though I expect a good ride out of Nibali in yellow. Cancellara will be right in the mix and would be no shock to see him run away with it. He's only 35 seconds down on GC so it's not unthinkable that even he could be in yellow tonight. Niki Terpstra won the Paris-Roubaix this year but yesterday was involved in a crash and that might take its toll on him today. Beyond that there are stacks of riders who could come good and win this stage, though many will be riding exclusively for the aid of their team-leaders. And here's a thought: what are the chances of Marcel Kittle grinding it out to stay at the front and taking a forth stage victory? Probably not however, if only because the others will know his finishing threat and work to get away from him.

Today's race is about as open as any Tour de France stage gets. Sure the mountains are unpredictable, but only between a handful of riders that can feature in them. Today the vast majority of the field could win if they play it right and while the time gaps probably won't be as large as in the mountains, they will still be significant. By this evening the outlook of this Tour will be very much different than it is this morning.