DRAW A NAME FROM A HAT TO PICK A WINNER
Here we go again ... the finest month in the lives of cycling fans -- unless you happen to live in Belgium and therefore breath the spring classics, which I love, don't get me wrong -- but July means sunshine, it means live cycling on the television every day for three straight weeks (excluding two rest days) and it means it's time to sit on the sofa watching the peloton whizz through small scenic French towns in the French countryside while wishing you were sitting out front of one of their small cafes or pubs sipping a tea or a beer waiting for the race to come streaming past. July means the Tour de France and say what you will about the power of the spring classics and the heroism of the grueling Giro that can be argued is even harder than the Tour of late, this is still the Tour -- the 100th edition of the Tour at that -- it's what any good cycling fan has grown up with and this is The Cycle Seen's bumper edition guide to it, 2013.The first question when I talk to anyone about an upcoming Tour de France isn't what town they'd like to visit most on the route, which stage they'll be taking a day off work to watch, or who they think will provide us with the first doping scandal of the race, but rather the simple question: Who do you reckon will win this year?
One of the real beauties of the Tour de France is the inability to pin down a certain winner ... at least not since Lance Armstrong retired (actually, given this past winter we're supposed to admit that we don't know who this Lance Armstrong character is since his name was stripped from the record books, or at least to believe him to be some bloke who raced in the 90's before cancer forced him to retire). In the years that have followed 2005 we've had some fantastic wide open Tours.
In 2006 we had no idea who would take up the reigns and even when we thought we had a winner in Floyd Landis it turned out he wasn't the winner at all, it was Oscar Pereiro. He soon vanished and Alberto Contador took up the flag. A supreme talent he wasn't without suspicion and that soon bore fruit in 2010 when he failed a test for clenbuterol. Still, he was often a pre-race favorite but thanks to the likes of Andy 'always-second-except-when-Alberto-is-disqualified' Schleck, Cadel Evans finally overhauling Thomas Voeckler, and even Carlos Sastre who sneaked in and grabbed a victory in 2008, we never went into a Tour sure who the winner would be.
In 2012 we had the first British winner in the history of the race and while Brad Wiggins was the pre-race favorite it was still hard for this fan -- who grew up watching British riders on the fringes of the race vying for a prologue to get the yellow jersey or a flat stage to pick up a win -- to see him actually doing it. I thought Evans would spoil the party with a handful of others in the mix, yet Wiggins prevailed and took an historic victory.
Which leads me to a quick thank you to Team Sky: Thank you for telling us that Bradley Wiggins would not be entering the 2013 Tour de France before I started this whole preview thing. The first defending champion (not counting retirement) to fail to take to the start since Stephen Roche in 1988 (LeMond as defending champion failed to start in 1987 also). I can now put someone else in my forthcomming 'ten-to-watch' list at his expense.
2013 has the makings of a classic, which of course is a cliche rolled out ever year when people look ahead to an upcoming Tour de France, and to say that this is the most wide open Tour in history would not only be another famous cliche, but probably inaccurate. Still, at first glance it sure looks as wide open as they come and as much as any in recent times it has you only guessing at who might win. Of course, I'll try and predict a winner but in reality I'd be just as well cutting up small pieces of paper with various riders names on them, dropping them into a hat and drawing out who I think the winner will be.
Consider what we've got in store: It's the 100th edition of the Tour, the race is visiting (for the start) the island of Corsica for the first time, there's six mountain stages, two time trials, a team-time-trial in beautiful Nice, four summit finishes including two trips up Alp d'Huez in one afternoon, and a host of top riders.
Contador, Froome, Rodriguez, Hesjedal, Evans, Porte, or even a sudden re-emergence of Andy Schleck? How about slight outsiders Tejay Van Garderen, Valverde, Van Den Broeck, Thibaut Pinot, or Pierre Rolland? And what about a potential late entrant of Vincenzo Nibali going for a Giro-Tour double? And that's just in the battle for Yellow.
The proof, of course, is in the pudding, but until the pudding lands on the table and we can indulge in it, below is a look at ten riders to watch as well as well as some predictions on who will be standing on the podium in Paris with a yellow jersey slung over his shoulders.
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TEN TO WATCH
Alberto Contador
Age: 30 | From: Spain | Team: Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank
Alberto Contador is arguably the most talented rider of his generation, though not without fault. The Spaniard has finished in Paris as the winner of the Tour de France on three occasions (2007, 2009 and 2010) but lost his 2010 title after failing a drug test for clenbuterol in the infamous Spanish beef scandal. Indeed, since 2007 he had won every Tour he started up until the 2011 Giro before his positive test seen him stripped of his tour title, his result from the 2011 tour and his victory in that 2011 Giro.
He returned from suspension in time to win the Vuelta for the second time in 2012 but appeared short of form in the early season in 2013. That drop in form has naturally been seen by some as a good thing ... a sign that he's learned from his suspension, but make not mistake about it, he remains one of the best in the business and you can expect him to be in the mix this year once the race hits the mountains.
Chris Froome will be his nearest rival and goes into the Tour as favorite, but if Contador hits peak form at the right time it's hard to look past anyone getting the better of him over three weeks.
Prediction: 1st; stage win.
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Chris Froome
Age: 28 | From: Kenya/GB | Team: Sky
Chis Froome had been a so-so top end professional for several years before breaking onto the scene at the Vuelta in 2011. He followed up that podium finish by finishing second in the Tour last year behind team leader Bradley Wiggins despite at times looking much stronger than Wiggins on the climbs. With a route designed more towards the climber than the time-trialist who can climb, Froome was Sky's pick to lead their charge in 2013 despite Wiggins's at times claiming otherwise.
When Wiggins withdrew from this years Giro with illness it seemed like he would turn his attention to the Tour and we would get the epic inter-team battle we were hoping for. It wasn't to be though. Sky have said Wiggins wont be starting in Corsica and so Froome goes into the race as undisputed leader of the team.
He also goes in as favorite, in blistering form and as someone who can still perform very well against the clock he'll be a tough man for his rivals to shake. Sky will be favorites for the team-time-trial, he'll not lose much time in the individual time-trial and when the racing hits the high mountains he should be at his best.
Froome was born in Kenya but rides under a British license, raced in the Olympics for Britain and the British media haven't been slow in adopting him as their own. As a result we could be on the verge of having waited a lifetime for a British Tour de France winner only to have two come along in two years. Still there will be a few others who'll have something to say about that.
Prediction: 2nd; mountain stage win; team-time-trial stage win.
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Ryder Hesjedal
Age: 32 | From: Canada | Team: Garmin-Sharp
The big Canadian has had a run of bad luck since winning his first Grand Tour at the Giro in May 2012. He crashed out of the Tour last year when hopes were high of a strong finish, he took ill and had to abandon the Giro while defending his title this year, and just this June he crashed out of the Tour of Switzerland while showing excellent early form.
How injured he is from that crash and how being unable to finish in Switzerland affects his form going into the Tour remains to be seen but he should be able to use the first week to get himself together ahead of the big mountains. Hesjedal is one of the strongest riders in the bunch ... he doesn't have the acceleration of a Froome, Rodriguez or Contador but he can tap out huge watts to bridge gaps and ride away himself if need be. He's aggressive and will go on the attack early and as one of the best descenders in the race he could utilise that to gain time on the purest of climbers.
Canada would love to see him in contention of a Grand Tour again and should he shake his bad luck there's no reason he can't be. He won't be drained from three weeks at the Giro this time and should have all his eggs in the Tour basket. A podium finish is certainly not out of the question.
Prediction: 3rd; stage win.
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Joaqium Rodriguez
Age: 34 | From: Spain | Team: Katusha
Rodriguez is one of the best climbers in the world, certainly on the steep climbs when it comes to attacking. The Spaniard can jump clear with superb speed though maintaining it is often a problem. He's at his very best in the final few kilometres of a mountain stage at getting clear and grabbing a stage win. He done this to great effect at the 2011 Giro, often sweeping up bonus time on the line to push Ryder Hesjedal all the way until the final stage of the race to get the Pink jersey from him.
Rodriguez is an outside bet to win the Tour having skipped this years Giro and at the very least he's a safe bet to win one of the mountain stages. Chances are he'll not quite have enough to shake both Alberto Contador and Chris Froome, and when he comes to that realisation he might well turn his attention to the King of the Mountains competition. It would be great to see a pure climber like Rodriguez win that prize.
Rodriguez will be invisible until the race his the mountains, but when it does he'll attack and he'll keep the rest of the contenders on their toes and hurting. Little climbers like Rodriguez spice up mountain stages and often kick start the action.
Prediction: 5th; King of the Mountains; mountain top stage win.
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Cadel Evans
Age: 36 | From: Australia | Team: BMC
Cadel Evans is coming into the Tour off the back of a podium finish at the Giro and is hoping to maintain that form from and use it to help him to a similar such finish in France. Actually, Evans is intent on stealing the show from Contador and Froome and winning what would be his second Tour in three years.
Of course the main problem for Evans is the fact that few in this day and age can come from a productive Giro and put it together again for three weeks at Le Tour. On top of that he's now 36 years of age now and his best days are likely behind him which made his appearance at the Giro a bit of a surprise.
Even so, one thing we are guaranteed with Evans is spadefuls of grit. He isn't the most aggressive rider out there but he'll hunt down every attack until he's at the point of collapse and just when you think he's lost contact and has blown his chances for good he'll grind his way back onto the wheels of the leaders.
He comes into the Tour as BMC team leader but with the young American Teejay Van Garderen chomping at the bit to be let free to show what he can do this might well be the Tour in which we see a changing of the guard in BMC leadership. Should Evans show signs of age, they won't be long in passing the tourch over to Van Garderen. Saying that, in 2012 Van Gardern finished ahead of Evans so it could be argued that was the changing of the guard, but BMC have said that Evans will go into the 2013 Tour as their team leader. Then again, that could be a ploy to keep the attention and pressure off of Van Garderen until it's time for him to shine come the mountains.
But who knows, the Australian is a proud man and could well have one last kick at the can left in him and wouldn't it be great to see him go into the final few mountain stages still very much in the mix?
The BMC leadership and where it flows in this Tour is one of the many intriguing sub-plots that awaits us.
Prediction: 9th
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Andy Schleck
Age: 28 | From: Luxembourg | Team: RadioShack-Leopard
You might be wondering why I've included Andy Schleck in this list given the form, or lack thereof, that he's displayed this season. Schleck's fall from the upper ranks of cycling to a man who appears incapable of keeping up in any of race he's entered has been stunning. Is he riding clean now or did he just peak too soon in his career? The chances that he'll suddenly show up in Corsica ready to compete for the Yellow jersey that he won in 2010 thanks to Contador's disqualification appear unlikely, but it'll be fascinating to watch how he goes regardless and that's why he's on this list.
Schleck missed the Tour last year with an injury and perhaps it's something he's never fully recovered from. His season to date would make it all too easy for him to back out of this years Tour also, so credit to him for showing up to try and give it a go. A stage win would be a huge bonus for him and it could happen if he loses a lot of time in the early mountain stages. I hate to see anyone struggle and so it would be nice if he found some form and got into the mix, but it's hard to see it. His brother won't be on hand and even should he suddenly show up at the front of the race when it hits the mountains it'll only draw skepticism from onlookers. He's in a no win situation in that regard.
Still I hope he goes out and risks it all rather than hanging in hoping to survive. He should go on the attack in an early mountain stage from a long way out and try to turn the race on its head. What has he to lose if he fails? But if he succeeds then it could reignite his season altogether.
Prediction: Outside the top 25
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Tejay Van Garderen
Age: 24 | From: USA | Team: BMC
The young American sprung to everyone's attention last year when he won the white jersey for the best young rider in the Tour while finishing fifth overall. Riding for BMC he is technically still the super domestique for Cadel Evans, but with plenty of miles and a Tour title already in the legs of Evans, Van Garderen is surely thinking about his own goals in this Tour. Should Evans slip it's hard to see Van Garderen being made to wait for him.
He's got a stage victory in him and he'll be hot favorite along with Thibault Pinot for the White jersey again, but given what we seen from him last year don't rule him out of a GC contention. Chris Froome and Alberto Contador might have a little too much for him, but he won't be thinking that way and if he can hang in there in the early going anything could happen.
Van Garderen is very much the future generation of cycling and -- given what we learned this past winter -- if he does go on to win the Tour he'll be the first American to do so since Greg LeMond in 1990. Let's hope he is to American cycling what LeMond was and not those that came after.
Prediction: 4th; stage win; young rider competition
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Thibaut Pinot
Age: 23 | From: France | Team: FDJ
I wanted to include a Frenchman in this ten and that might have been expected to be Thomas Voeckler or his team-mate Pierre Rolland. Both have stood out the last two years with Voeckler being a surprise challenger in 2011 and Rolland emerging as one of the bright young talents of French cycling with a couple of top ten finishes, but I've went with Thibaut Pinot, one I reckon to be the brightest of all young French riders and the one who can oneday become the first Frenchman to win the Tour since Bernard Hinault in 1985.
Pinot was the youngest rider in the 2012 Tour but came to everyone's attention on stage eight when he won a mountain stage to Porrentruy. You might remember his team manager, Mark Madiot hanging out the car window cheering on the young rider (see picture above). Pinot converted that opportunity and a number of other strong showings in the mountains into a top ten finish, the youngest man to finish in the top ten since Raymond Impanis way back in 1947.
Don't be shocked to see Pinot pushing further up the GC this year and vying for a stage win. He's still learning but if last years promise is anything to go by then it shouldn't be long at all before he's challenging to win a Tour. I mean, his fellow countryman Laurent Fignon won his first of two straight Tours aged 22. A nation turns its Yellow jersey barren eyes to you Thibaut. No pressure then kid.
Prediction: 6th; stage winner.
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Mark Cavendish
Age: 28 | From: Great Britain | Team: Omega Pharma-Quick Step
The fastest man in the world ... the fastest man of all time. Fitting titles for a man well on target to win more stages than anyone in the history of the Tour de France. His 23 stage wins in 107 races is good for a staggering 21.5% success rate and at only 28 years of age has plenty of time on his side to win the 12 more required to move ahead of Eddy Merckx for the most Tour de France stage victories. If he can average three stage wins per Tour for the next four years he will do it.
The Isle of Man sprinter is coming into the Tour in fine form. He won five stage in the Giro and nobody could touch him. Yes there will be the rare time he gets boxed in, the occasional time he gets caught in an accident near the finish, and the odd time he loses contact on a late-stage climb, but more often than not when the race arrives inside the final kilometre and the day's break has been caught with perfect race-radio-aided timing, there is only one winner.
On his day -- which is often -- he's untouchable and arguably the best cyclist in the world at what he does. He rode for Sky last year but felt he had to move on to a team that was focused on helping him win stages rather than someone else the Yellow jersey and it appears to be working out for him. He still managed three wins despite Sky's distractions towards Bradley Wiggins, but with his good old lead out train chasing down breaks and setting him up don't be surprised to see him win more than three this year.
Cav will also be looking to win his fifth straight stage into Paris on the Tour's final day. He'll also be fighting for the Green jersey but might find it hard to shake someone like Peter Sagan who can sprint well but also pick up points on the more lumpy stages that will catch Cav out. Indeed, the Green points jersey normally goes to the Tours best sprinter, but in the era of Cav (2011 aside, when he won it) that is not proving to be the case.
Prediction: 4 stage wins; 2nd in points competition; Lanterne Rouge contender.
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Peter Sagan
Age: 23 | From: Slovakia | Team: Cannondale
Some call Peter Sagan the next Eddy Merckx, but that's a little unfair. Sagan might become the classics rider Merckx was, he can certainly sprint like Merckx could, but it seems unlikely he's going to be the Grand Tour rider Merckx was. All he serves to do when these comparisons are drawn is remind us how good Merckx was because as a stand alone talent, Sagan is supreme.
This ten to watch preview isn't the likely top-ten on GC and that's why Sagan is in here. He's one you want to watch at the Tour, one who makes the Tour better for being there as we found out last year and as entertaining a character there is in the peloton. If he isn't pulling a wheelie up over a tough climb he's doing the running man celebration or some other wacky move with which to enjoy his racing by, and when all else fails he's pinching the bottom of a podium girl. Sagan is a breathe of fresh air in modern day sport and he'll be great to watch in this Tour, especially the first week.
Corsica looks made for him. Day one is perhaps a little too flat for him and the fastest of sprinters (namely Mark Cavendish) should have their way, but stages two and three have enough tough climbs to get rid of the pure sprinters but keep classics men like him around. The short climbs will suit his punchy style and the power he can produce on a short hill is enough to leave behind even the pure climbers. Don't be surprised to see Sagan return to mainland France with the Yellow jersey on his back and then ride into Paris little under three weeks later with the Green points jersey over his shoulders. He seems a lock for that contest.
Prediction: Three stage wins; green points jersey; maybe a top 30 overall.
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STAGE-BY-STAGE
(With a stage importance rating out of *****)
Stage 1, Jun 29 -- Porto-Vecchio to Bastia, 213 km **
Stage 2, Jun 30 -- Bastia to Ajaccio, 156 km **
Stage 3, Jul 1 -- Ajaccio to Calvi, 145.5 km **
Stage 4, Jul 2 -- Nice to Nice, 25 km TTT ***
Stage 5, Jul 3 -- Cagnes-sur-Mer to Marseille, 228.5 km *
Stage 6, Jul 4 -- Aix-en-Provence to Montpellier, 176.5 km *
Stage 7, Jul 5 -- Montpellier to Albi, 205.5 km ***
Stage 8, Jul 6 -- Castres to Ax 3 Domaines, 195 km *****
Stage 9, Jul 7 -- Saint-Girons to Bagnères-de-Bigorre,168.5 km *****
Rest Day
Stage 10, Jul 9 -- Saint-Gildas-des-Bois to Saint-Malo, 197km *
Stage 11, Jul 10 -- Avranches to Mont-Saint-Michel, 33 km TT *****
Stage 12, Jul 11 -- Fougères to Tours, 218 km *
Stage 13, Jul 12 -- Tours to Saint-Amand-Montrond, 173 km *
Stage 14, Jul 13 -- Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule to Lyon, 191 km **
Stage 15, Jul 14 -- Givors to Mont Ventoux, 151 km *****
Rest day
Stage 16, Jul 16 -- Vaison-la-Romaine to Gap, 168 km ***
Stage 17, Jul 17 -- Embrun to Chorges, 32 km TT *****
Stage 18, Jul 18 -- Gap to Alpe d'Huez, 172.5 km *****
Stage 19, Jul 19 -- Le Bourg-d'Oisans to Le Grand-Bornand,204.5 km *****
Stage 20, Jul 20 -- Annecy to Annecy Semoz, 125 km *****
Stage 21, Jul 21 -- Versailles to Paris Champs-Élysées,133.5 km *
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PREDICTIONS
Overall:
1. Alberto Contador
2. Chris Froome
3. Ryder Hesjedal
4. Tejay Van Garderen
5. Joaquim Rodriguez
6. Thibaut Pinot
7. Jurgan Van Den Broeck
8. Richie Porte
9. Cadel Evans
10. Pierre Rolland
Points: Peter Sagan
Mountains: Joaquim Rodriguez
Young: Tejay Van Garderen
Team: Sky
Most stage wins: Mark Cavendish
