Simply put, Nibali has done what's required to keep his rivals behind him, to keep them from gaining time on him and he's ticked off three days of racing, including today (Tuesday), putting him closer to his dream of winning his national tour.
Saturday's stage was perhaps the most decisive and since it put Nibali more than a minute ahead of everyone else it may be the stage we look back on as the one that really did seal the race for him. That said, there's still a lot of climbing to come ... the hardest stages lie ahead and the Italian won't be able to relax yet. He looks good but one bad day might yet swing this race and rivals such as Rigoberto Uran will be pushing the agenda and trying to force a mistake the rest of this week.
Saturday's stage was epic, despite the fact we seen virtually none of it. It's amazing what you'll sit and watch and how little you'll see but how exciting that will make it. All morning (as it were in Canada), I sat watching the mist at the top of the days final climb, the Jafferau, in between reviews of past stages, as we waited for the race to reach the first live camera. Awful weather conditions had meant the race had skipped going over Sestriere and that none of the cameras could relay the pictures onto our television sets. As such the commentators could do little more than tell us what was being said over race radio and what the scenery would look like without fog.
Still, as the tension built and the riders hit the final climb the excitement grew. There were conflicting reports as to who was leading? Were the break still ahead? Had Nibali attacked? Was Evans with him? Were they leading? Or had one of them actually cracked? The camera got 400 metres down the mountainside from the finish line and was trained on the mist as the headlights from official car and police motorbike came through. It's amazing how far ahead of the race some of these vehicles are and every time you see a light you think a rider will be tucked in behind that motorbike.
For someone this was going to be their, "It's Stephen Roche ... It's Stephen Roche" moment. I almost wanted the commentator to do his best Phil Liggett impersonation circa the Tour de France, 1987 and start yelling that just for the sake of amusement.
Then suddenly a light and what looked like a cycling jersey and then what looked like a Pink jersey. It was Vincenzo Nibali ... it was Vincenzo Nibali following Mauro Santambrogio and they were ahead of the rest. Santambrogio took the stage, Nibali second and with it a time bonus. He had gained on his rivals: Uran lost 30 seconds, Evans 33 seconds, and Gesink over four minutes back. The win vaulted Santambrogio up into fourth overall 2-47 behind Nibali. Evans had dropped to 1-26 overall but still in second place.
What drama for such little seen action. It just goes to show you that in sport it's the tension as much as the action that can provide the drama and the spectacle.
Sunday was another classic ... a ride to the summit of the Col du Galibier. Movistar's Giovanni Visconti won in the snow and while everyone crossed the line in drips and drabs none of the top contenders lost time to one another with Michele Scarponi leading in a group containing Nibali, Evans, Santambrogio, Uran and Robert Kiserlovski, 54 seconds behind Visconti. The difficulty of the stage was probably best highlighted by the time tap to the 75 man strong Grupetto which ambled home in exhaustion almost 28 minutes down.
Monday was a rest day (how dare they!), and today another hilly stage. The worst climbs were far enough out that no serious damage could be done and while Benat Intxausti won the stage from a three man break 14 seconds ahead of the Pink jersey group, it was Saturday's winner, Mauro Santambrogio, who really lost out dropping 2 minutes and 10 seconds to Nibali. It drops him back to sixth overall now with Scarponi vaulting up to fourth and Przemyslaw Niemiec -- who finished with Intxausti -- into fifth.
Tomorrow is as flat as it gets baring a fourth cat climb 17 kilometres from the finish and the only launching pad for someone to spoil another Mark Cavendish win. Thursday is an uphill time trial and then two days with serious climbing follow to fully sort out this race once and for all. It's going to be a great final week.
General classification after stage 16
1. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Astana in 67-55-36
2. Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC at 1-26
3. Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Sky at 2-46
4. Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre-Merida at 3-53
5. Przemyslaw Niemiec (Pol) Lampre-Merida at 4-13
6. Mauro Santambrogio (Ita) Vini Fantini-Selle Italia at 4-57
