Monday, July 23, 2012

Proof that you probably shouldn't bet on my advice

Before the tour began I laid down my predictions for the top ten overall as well as the top three in the points and mountains classifications. To say I was quite wide of the remark with regards to some picks would be an understatement though to be fair you can never predict crashes that might suddenly eliminate a contender. Perhaps the closest I got, aside from picking Jurgen Van Den Broeck correctly in forth, was picking Wiggins in second, one place below where he finished. Why did I ever doubt you Brad? The following is a look at where my picks ended up finishing along with the actual stage winners by comparison to my questionable picks in the stage previews.



Overall
1. Cadel Evans -- Finished 7th
2. Brad Wiggins -- Finished 1st
3. Ryder Hesjedal -- Abandoned after stage 7
4. Jurgen Van Den Broeck -- Correct
5. Dennis Menchov -- Finished 15th
6. Samuel Sanchez -- Abandoned at stage 8
7. Pierre Rolland -- Finished 8th
8. Frank Schleck -- Withdrew for doping after stage 16
9. Alejandro Valverde -- Finished 20th
10. Tony Martin -- Withdrew after stage 10


Points
1. Mark Cavendish -- Finished 4th
2. Peter Sagan -- Finished 1st
3. Philippe Gilbert -- Finished 20th

Mountains
1.  Frank Schleck -- Withdrew for doping after stage 16
2. Jurgen Van Den Broeck -- Finished 17th
3. Samuel Sanchez -- Abandoned at stage 8

Individual stage predictions
(My prediction (where he finished with time gap to stage winner) | Actual result)
Prologue:  Peter Sagan (53rd at 24 sec) | Frabian Cancellara
Stage 1:  Edvald Boasson Hagen (3rd at st.) | Peter Sagan
Stage 2:  Peter Sagan (6th at st.) | Mark Cavendish
Stage 3:  Philippe Gilbert (168th at 7-46) | Peter Sagan
Stage 4:  Mark Cavendish (188th at 4-19) | André Greipel
Stage 5:  Mark Cavendish (5th at st.) | André Greipel
Stage 6:  Mark Cavendish (123rd at 6-02) | Peter Sagan
Stage 7:  Samuel Sanchez (16th at 1-31) | Chris Froome
Stage 8:  Edvald Boasson Hagen (77th at 10-17) | Thibaut Pinot
Stage 9:  Fabian Cancellara (3rd at 57 sec) | Bradley Wiggins
Stage 10:  Alejandro Valverde (17th at 3-16) | Thomas Voeckler
Stage 11:  Cadel Evans (11th at 2-23) | Pierre Rolland
Stage 12:  George Hincapie (57th at 8-54) | David Millar
Stage 13:  Peter Sagan (2nd at st.) | André Greipel
Stage 14:  Jérémy Roy (99th at 28-18) | Luis León Sánchez
Stage 15:  Mark Cavendish (82nd at 11-50) | Pierrick Fédrigo
Stage 16:  Dan Martin (7th at 6-08) | Thomas Voeckler
Stage 17:  Vincenzo Nibali (7th at 37 sec) | Alejandro Valverde
Stage 18:  Peter Sagan (3rd at st.) | Mark Cavendish
Stage 19:  Bradley Wiggins (Correct) | Bradley Wiggins
Stage 20:  Mark Cavendish (Correct) | Mark Cavendish
2 out of 21 (Thank goodness for those last two stages! And I hope you didn't bet money off the back of my picks! Saying that, my pick did reach the top ten of the stage  on ten occasions).