New and old stage winners while the GC remains tightly poised ahead of time-trial

Five stages have passed since my last musings into the Vuelta at which time Chris Froome had just abandoned and Fabio Aru had just moved into the Red jersey. In those subsequent five stages we've seen three extremely hard days in the mountains and two rolling stages in which the metal of all those left contending was tested to the max, as the climbers looked to shift the specter of Tom Dumoulin from the GC ahead of Wednesdays' time-trial, while also trying to battle one another for stage success and time gains overall.

Stages 12 and 13 gave us inaugural Grand Tour stage winners as Danny Van Poppel proved himself a chip off the old block when he won from a bunch sprint followed a day later by Nelson Oliveira who won solo as the contenders finished together.

On stage 14 the heavy lifting began again when Alessandro De Marchi won from the early break in the mist at Fuente del Chivo as Aru got a little too excited too early and cost himself time late on to Quintana while only taking 19sec from an impressive Dumoulin.

A day later on stage 15 it was Joaqium Rodriguez who took the race to Aru and narrowed his deficit to the Italian overall to a mere 1sec as Dumoulin once again limited his losses to just 36sec.

Then yesterday, on stage 16, Frank Schleck summoned his old self and emerged alone from the breakaway group to win his first race in over four years. Almost 9mins later the contenders arrived to the harsh summit and once again it was Rodriguez leading the charge. The 35-year old Spaniard, still seeking his first Grand Tour win, took the required 2sec from Aru to move into the race lead as everyone else conceded time. Quintana, still recovering from an illness but still not looking the man he was at the Tour, lost 12sec to Rodriguez while Dumoulin surrendered 27sec.

Dumoulin's riding over these high mountain stages has been mightily impressive. He has rode extremely intelligently by not going too far into the red when the Red jersey group would accelerate on the steepest slopes, but rather accepted his limited fate on such gradients and rode within himself to lose seconds rather than minutes. He went into the first rest day with a 57sec lead in the overall to Rodriguez with Aru in fifth at 1min 13sec. Six hard stages later, better suited to his rivals, he arrives at the second rest day -- and more crucially, tomorrow's individual time-trial -- with a 1min 51sec deficit to Rodriguez.

Given Dumoulin's time-trialing ability he could very well overturn that gap and find himself in Red with just four stages left. The question will be how much he can take back on Rodriguez and Aru, and indeed extend as a lead, given that three of the final four stages are reasonably hilly, though none with a summit finish. Indeed, Aru and Rodriguez will still be watching the time of one another in the hopes that Dumoulin's body proves more beat up than it otherwise would be before a time-trial and he fails to deliver the goods. Aru is likely the better man against the clock between the two, but with Rodriguez now in Red and with what is surely his last chance to win that illusive Grand Tour, will that be the extra incentives he needs to see off Aru and even what Dumoulin has to offer?

It will be fascinating to follow and I have to think it won't decide the Vuelta but merely tee up those final three hilly stages.

Overall standings after 16 stages:

1. Rodriguez (KAT) in 67h 52' 44"

2. Aru (AST) @ 1"

3. Majka (TSC) @ 1' 35"

4. Dumoulin (TGA) @ 1' 51"

5. Nieve (SKY) @ 2' 32"

6. Chaves (OGE) @ 2' 38"

Others: 7. Moreno (KAT) @ 2' 49"; 8. Quintana (MOV) @ 3' 11"; 9. Valverde (MOV) @ 3' 58"; 10. Meintjes (MTN) @ 5' 22"