Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Dumoulin smashes TT while Aru finishes strong to remain intact

Slowly the weeding out process of this years Vuelta has seen us left with three likely winners coming into today. Joaqium Rodriguez, Fabio Aru and Tom Dumoulin, all three of whom have had their turn in Red over the past two and a half weeks. Today's time-trial would shake things up further and reduce the likely competition to win overall to just two and in doing so it turned into a micro-version of the race itself with each man taking a turn as provisional race leader on the road until at which times the overall standings were turned on their head with Tom Dumoulin back in Red with just 3sec to spare on the impressive Aru.

No two ways about it, Dumoulin smashed the 38.7km time-trial in impressive fashion, averaging a speed of over 50 km/h to win the stage by more than a minute to the next man and overturn a 1min 52sec deficit to take back the race leaders jersey. Credit too must go to Aru who himself done exactly what Dumoulin has done best in the mountains by limiting his losses enough to remain in touch with the Dutchman overall, while Rodriguez had a disaster and coughed up over 3mins to the stage winner leave him 1min 15sec out of the race lead.

The overall standings were as follows coming into the stage, meaning that Dumoulin had it all to do in his specialty event while Rodriguez and Aru were looking for the time-trial of their lives to remain in contact.

Pre-stage GC:
1. Rodriguez
2. Aru
3. Majka
4. Dumoulin
5. Nieve
6. Chaves

@ 1"
@ 1' 35"
@ 1' 51"
@ 2' 32"
@ 2' 38"

By the 13.5km mark, or one-third of the course in, Dumoulin was already stamping his authority on the stage. Riding like a man possessed, or with a Red jersey in front of his nostrils, he posted a time of 17min 44sec (45.7km/h) which was 44sec better than that of Aru and 1min 11sec up on Rodriguez who was clearly struggling and already out of the race lead. It shifted the provisional overall to the following:

Provisional GC:
1. Aru
2. Rodriguez
3. Dumoulin
4. Majka
5. Chaves
6. Moreno

@ 26"
@ 1' 6"
@ 1' 50"
@ 2' 48"
@ 3' 3"

By the time they reached the 27.5km check point, Dumoulin (in a time of 31min 41sec, 52.1km/h) had his foot on the throat of both Aru and Rodriguez. Aru had coughed up 1min 44sec and only retained the provisional lead over Dumoulin by 6sec while Rodriguez had lost a massive 2min 38sec.

Provisional GC:
1. Aru
2. Dumoulin
3. Rodriguez
4. Majka
5. Quintana
6. Chaves

@ 6"
@ 53"
@ 1' 55"
@ 2' 54"
@ 3' 1"

With 11.2km still remaining, if the time losses kept going at the rate they were with Aru losing 3.75sec/km and Rodriguez losing 5.75sec/km to Dumoulin, Aru would find himself losing 2min 26sec to Dumoulin on the day with Rodriguez worse still at 3min 43sec.

As it turned out, Dumoulin had put in his best effort and was starting to struggle whereas Aru had kept something in the tank. A short sharp little hill in the final sector may well have played its part but rather than lose a potential 42sec over the final 11.2km, Aru only lost 9sec and it meant he finished 1min 53sec behind Dumoulin leaving him just 3sec back overall. Rodriguez also improved in the final 11.2km as he kept what might have been a 1min 4sec loss over that stretch down to just 28sec. It meant he finished 3min 6sec behind Dumoulin, a disaster to his GC hopes you could say, but it could have been much worse.

The result however has seen the top ten turned on its head. Dumoulin is up from 4th place into the race lead, Rodriguez is down from 1st to 3rd, Majka down to 4th, Quintana (6th on the stage) and Valverde (3rd on the stage) both up three spots to 5th and 6th respectively, with Chaves and Moreno each losing a spot and Mikel Nieve losing four places and down to 9th.

With just a 3sec gap, Aru will fancy his chances to still win this race, especially with three hilly stages still to come, but with no summit finishes Dumoulin will also believe he can hang in and maintain his slender lead. For the likes of Rodriguez, Mijka, Quintana and Valverde, something audacious will be required; the kind of move that comes early on a hilly stage and splits the race to pieces. We can only hope for such drama, but given the race lead is only split by three seconds, I'd say we've been spoiled quite a lot already.

Classement:
1. Dumoulin (TGA)
2. Aru (AST)
3. Rodriguez (KAT)
4. Majka (TCS)
5. Quintana (MOV)
6. Valverde (MOV)
in 68h 40' 36"
@ 3"
@ 1' 15"
@ 2' 22"
@ 2' 53"
@ 3' 15"