The ex-footballer Gary Lineker once said, "Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win." I felt the same about the Tour de France in the early 90s. 198 men rode around France for 3 weeks and in the end, Miguel Indurain always won. He did so by sitting tight in a first week that belonged to the sprinters, demolishing his rivals in the time-trials, and preserving in the mountains.
Which brings me to the 2017 Giro and from Big Mig to Big Tom. Tom Dumoulin that is. The majority of the first week here belonged to sprinters or opportunists too. There was the ride up Etna, but that never exploded like the Volcano can. Then there was the finish at Blockhaus, but Tom limited his losses. He rode steady and measured his effort. And finally, ala Indurain, on the first time-trial, he blew away the rest to set up his bid for glory.
His time-trial was the stuff of brilliance. Only four men finished within 2 minutes of him. Many expected him to recover the time he lost on Blockhaus but nobody though he could demolish the rest in this manor. By not busting a gut to try and stay with Quintana on that climb, but rather keeping it steady and limiting his loses, it's clear that Dumoulin was thinking of the time-trial. Deep down he knew if he could maintain his discipline on that climb, he would have enough left to put in a huge effort the following day.
And it was testament to the form of Geraint Thomas that he finished second, 49 seconds behind Dumoulin. And a shame that he crashed at such a crucial time at the foot of Blockhaus. How well he could have gone without that crash we'll never know. But assuming he would have been in the sharp end of proceedings, then you have to figure that with this effort in the time-trial he might well have been Dumoulin's nearest rival.
As it is though, Dumoulin has built built a sizable gap in the standings, He will now look to preserve it. And with another time-trial to come, the 2 minutes 23 second advantage he has over Nairo Quintana could in fact be good for 4-5 minutes when you factor it in. Quintana, who carried a 30 second lead into the time-trial, had it decimated. Dumoulin took 4.35 seconds per kilometre out of the Colombian over the 39.8km course. The final time-trial into Milan is 29.3km in length, and at that pace it could be good for an extra 2'07".
There are a lot more factors to this, of course, but the idea of these time gaps will now be in the back of Quintana's head. He will have to attack early and often now to try claw the time back and build a further buffer. Such a scenario is mouth watering and could make this race. Before this weekend this Giro was struggling to come to life but Big Tom trying to be Big Mig and Quintana trying to play the climbing foil is a mouth watering prospect.
General Classification after stage 10
1. Tom Dumpoulin (Subweb) in 42h57'16"
2. Nairo Quintana (Movistar) @ 2'23"
3. Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) @ 2'38"
4. Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) @ 2'40"
5. Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) @ 2'47"