Twelve months ago Froome crashed out of the Tour in the first week. It was on the day of the mighty cobbles, though Froome has always been quick to point out that he hadn't seen a cobble by the time of his accident. A lot of it was just bad luck; wrong place at the wrong time sort of stuff, though it didn't stop people hyper-analysing his ride, his riding style and his ability to handle a bike. Given the man had won the Tour just twelve months before a lot of that seemed strange, but the fact remained: With another Tour coming up with an even more hectic first week than last year, Froome had a point to prove.
You didn't have to go far to read or hear the expert predictions on how the first week might go: The winds would blow and split the bunch, the cobbles would hurt the little skinny men, the Mur's of Huy and Bretagne would cause time splits and would catch out unsuspecting tired legs and we'd see some favourites well back on time before they even reached the mountains.
In this the experts were correct. On Froome being one who would struggle and would have to work hardest to limit his losses, they were so blindly wrong. Yes hindsight plays a big part, but there was definitely a lack of respect shown to a former Tour de France champion to show the nerve to navigate the first week.
Of course luck comes into it...avoiding a crash at the wrong time (as Nibali found out on that windy stage to Zealand) or a badly timed mechanical issue (as Tibault Pinot discovered to his fury on the cobbles) can make a big difference, but a little luck has always played its part in winning the Tour. But other factors to winning a Tour include superb preparation (checking out the course before hand), confidence (maintaining your position near the front of the pack, be it with your elbows), the ability to handle a bike (on the cobbles or in the face of a crash on the final hill in La Havre) and a strong team around you (keeping you at the front on every stage and out of trouble on the stage with wind or with cobbles). This week Chris Froome demonstrated all of those attributes and got the lucky breaks you need to go with it.
Team Sky have been unshakable thus far and Chris Froome has looked like a rock. What a difference twelve months make and in just one week of this Tour up to the first rest day he has silenced those who questioned his ability to handle a bike on certain terrain, to avoid splits in the bunch, to have the nerve to stay at the front on the difficult run-ins, and to have a team capable of supporting him.
There is a long way to go, no doubt, but anybody who felt they knew just how the balance of this Tour might shake out felt that if Chris Froome was going to lose it, it would be in those first nine stages.
"Froome will have to limit his loses and if he's within two minutes of his rivals come the mountains, that might be seen as a success," said many. Even I felt Nibali might take time on him in the cobbles and Contador in the cross-winds, though I never felt he was as weak mentally as some tried to suggest. As it turns out they will land in Pau for the rest day this evening before heading into the high mountains of the Pyrenees, with Chris Froome in yellow, his rivals having to go back to the drawing board to access how they will now take this Tour to him and find a weakness to exploit. On current viewing, that will prove very hard.
The pre-Tour 'big four' after nine tough stages sitting perhaps in reverse order of what you might have expected:
1. Chris Froome
2. Alberto Contador +1'03"
3. Nairo Quintana +1'59"
4. Vincenzo Nibali +2'22"
