If you'd told me six months ago that I'd be sitting in January 2013 getting ready to hear Lance Armstrong admit that he took performance enhancing drugs I'd have thought you were on some form of recreational drugs, but the cycling world was very different back then and so much has changed from a drug related angle in the past half a year.
A USADA investigation found Lance Armstrong guilty of a slew of doping offences and their decision to strip him of his seven titles and ban him from the sport for life was ratified by the UCI. Tyler Hamilton wrote a tell-all book, a number of former team-mates of Armstrong came out and told their stories of doping, David Walsh -- the journalist who has been on the hunt for Lance for nigh on fifteen years -- wrote his own book 'Seven Deadly Sins', and Lance Armstrong became the dirty name of professional cycling.
Lance was really only left with two choices. Accept his fate but continue to stick to his guns and go quietly into the night, gradually slipping out of the public consciousness, or come roaring back with an admission that will keep him in the spotlight and perhaps open some avenue for him to still make a bit of money. He has this week choose the second option.
At least we assume he has. All talk is that Armstrong will appear on the Oprah Winfrey show next Thursday ready to tell the truth about his use of PEDs during his career, though wouldn't it be amusing in a perverse kind of way if he came on that show and continued to deny it? It would send many into a fury, but I think I'd find a way to chuckle at the madness of it.
That's not likely though. Any good PR man worth the wages Lance is paying him would never allow Armstrong to create such a scene. If he want's to keep denying he'd be better laying low. No, this will be the moment we've all been waiting for:
The truth, the most of the truth, and almost nothing but the truth.
I say that because I find it hard to believe this man will actually open his heart and accept his wrong doing's. He's been living the lie far to long for that. I desperately hope I'm wrong on that, of course. I'd love to see him tell everything and see how those who have got a strange kick out of hating him react to the sudden turn in attitude? Though I doubt that anything short of him opening his wallet and donating his entire life's earnings to cyclists who didn't dope with everything left over being split equally among all good cycling fans, would appease some.
No, I expect crocodile tears, I expect some form of a confession, and I expect that confession to be dressed up to make the audience feel sorry for him.
"I had no choice. I wanted to win and do it for all those suffering from Cancer and taking drugs only ensured I could," will sob Armstrong as Oprah hands him a tissue. "I didn't want to do it, but I couldn't let you all down by finishing second."
The concern among cycling fans is to what degree Oprah will peruse him. Will she really ask the hard questions? How much does she know about the background of it and those affected by Armstrong's drug use? Will she ask him how he feels about how he treated Christophe Bassons? What about how he feels now regarding Floyd Landis, Tyler Hamilton, Betsy Andreu, Emma O'Reilly, or David Walsh? Wouldn't it be brilliant Armstrong's face if halfway through Oprah turned to the audience and said: "Will you now welcome Floyd Landis onto the stage please?"
Will Oprah push him into a corner regarding certain elements of the dark world of drug use in cycling that he perhaps doesn't want to talk about? Will she ask him about donations to the UCI? What about positive tests that are reported to have been covered up? Will he implicate his old boss and buddy, Johan Bruyneel? And what will he say about Hein Verbruggen and Pat McQuaid? Will she keep him under the spotlight until all these things are answered, or will the pre-recorded show take the redemption angle that Armstrong must surely hope it does?
The producers of the show have said that no question is off limits, but that doesn't mean the end goal of the whole thing won't be a feel good story. American's love a tail of the bad boy comes good, and if that's the road it takes Armstrong will be all over it.
You see, Armstrong has lost his sponsors and he cannot compete either. He has a fortune but a lot of it may go on lawyer fees and other such lawsuits in the coming months. It won't leave him on the street or having to take a job at the local McDonald's, indeed, with whatever he has left we all could live very comfortably without having to work another day of our lives, but you become accustomed to a way of living -- the private jets, the entourage, and all that -- and Armstrong doesn't want to lose it. Lance knows that if he can sell this well, if he can tell the average American viewer that he was a bad boy but for good reasons deep down, then maybe he'll win back some old fans and slowly in time, some sponsors might even come his way again.
If not, then there's always the book deal.
Right now we have nothing but a lot of questions as to how this might go. Let's hope all our questions, as well as Oprah's, are answered.