It’s been a while. Six months and counting since I last wrote a word about cycling. In part a break because I was a little busy, in part because I was a little lazy, and in part because I decided to just observe for a while. And a lot has happened.
I cut right back on my TV cable subscription late last year and that locked me out of seeing a lot of the spring classics and early season week long stage races and as a result I was either following on dodgy live streams online, or via live text updates, or streaming Bradley Wiggins’ World Hour record attempt on my phone at the local pub.
The season has ploughed on regardless, of course, and there’s been some fascinating stories along the way. The multiple attempts at the World Hour record have captured the cycling fans imagination, brought to a head by Sir Bradley Wiggins’ mammoth effort in London in early June – though not mammoth enough to put it out of sight as we thought he might have, thanks in part to some dodgy air pressure ensuring someone else may yet make a run at it sooner than later; Ian Stannard’s epic outdueling of three Omega Pharma Quickstep riders at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad; Alexander Kristoff winning five races in the space of nine days including victory in the prestigious Tour of Flanders; John Degenklob becoming the new king of the cobbles with his Paris-Rouabix win - to go with his Milan-San Remo victory earlier in the spring - while eyes were all on Wiggins’ bid to become the first former Tour de France winner since Bernard Hinault to win at Roubaix; Alejandro Valverde becoming king of the Ardennes with back-to-back wins at La Flèche Wallonne and Liège–Bastogne–Liège – look out first week of Le Tour!; and then Alberto Contador trying to complete the first stage of his two-stage plan to win the Giro-Tour double. He did.
Oh, and there was the little matter of the CIRC report, but enoughs been said on that and there's too much to say about the Tour ahead. Yes, here we are in July and the anticipation for the Tour is at fever pitch, with so many questions to ask and all the answers to come on the road.
I always address that old pre-Tour cliché about this Tour having the potential to be one of the best in generations and then following it up by saying something like, ‘this time however, it really is’. But, this time it really is. For the first time the ‘big-four’ or ‘fab four’ or ‘Los Cuatro Galacticos’ of Alberto Contador (reigning Giro winner), Chris Froome (2013 Tour winner), Nairo Quintana (2014 Giro winner) and Vincenzo Nibali (reigning Tour winner) are going head-to-head.
Sure last year we had similar such excitement only for Froome and Contador to crash out before they had even hit the high mountains, and any such similar repeat is possible, but you can’t think that way and surely this time we’ll get to see the four of them go at it all the way to Paris. It's partly that last year we lost two big contenders so early that we're so excited about the re-match this time out.
In these four riders though, we’re only scratching at the possibilities here in July 2015.
Sit down with a pen and a blank piece of paper and try to list down who will finish in the top ten of the Tour...heck don't even worry about the order. It’s a nightmare. In every previous year I can think of, the top three have been tough, the top five a challenge, but come eighth, ninth and tenth you’re having to think a bit about names to slot in while wondering about a dark horse. This time there’s about 20-25 riders I can legitimately see finish in the top 10 and about 10-12 I could see pushing to finish in the top 5.
Granted Contador, Froome, Quintana and Nibali are the favorites to finish in the top four – the order of which you can pull from a hat and make an argument for – but things don’t tend to work out that smoothly. Other riders will hit form, someone will have a bad day, there will be mechanical issues, crashes, bad luck and, here’s hoping, a little controversy.
Beyond those four you’ve names like Thibaut Pinot (he of podium finish last year), Jean-Christope Peraud (second last year), Pierre Rolland (his coach reckons he’ll win the Tour and he was impressive last year’s Vuelta), Romain Bardet (young breakout rider last year surely poised to take another step forward), and Warren Barguil (the next French superstar in the making), and this is just the Frenchmen. There’s the two Americans: Tejay Van Garderen (a man on form) and Andrew Talansky (with a lot to prove), and beyond that a host of names could could legitimately vie for a top 10 finish: Rui Costa, Dan Martin, Rafal Majka, Roman Kreuziger, Richie Porte, Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Michal Kwiatkowski, Wilco Kelderman, Robert Gesink, Laurens Ten Dam, Joaqium Rodriguez, Ryder Hesjedal, Adam and Simon Yates, Haimar Zubeldia, and a bunch of others I will no doubt think about after publishing this.
When it comes time to step off the fence and put down what I think the top ten will be, I feel like I’ll have to give a legitimate argument as to why I’ve left certain riders out!
Then there’s the other categories beyond that of the Yellow jersey.
The polka-dot King of the Mountains prize is 40 years old this year. Will Rafal Majka go for it again or will a Frenchman like Pierre Rolland or Thomas Voeckler try bring it home once more? There's a stack of names from those I listed above who could come into contention by way of doing well in the mountain stages but not quite well enough often enough to be in with a shout of winning the Tour. The trick is to lose enough time early so that nobody objects to your incessant attacks in the later high mountains. It's how Majka played it last year. For several years I've tipped Dan Martin to win it, and he stands a decent chance if his bad luck of often crashing changes.
There's the Green points jersey. Or should that be the Peter Sagan jersey. Of course he'll be favourite to win it once more but don't rule out a rider like Michael Matthews or Simon Gerrans, or to really throw a name out there - Alejandro Valverde, trying to get involved.
There's also Mark Cavendish, but Sagan's style has made it tough for the pure sprinter to get a look in and I figure pure sprinting will be Cav's focus, especially with news that Marcel Kittle won't be involved. Indeed, that's perhaps the biggest shame coming into this Tour. 2014 cemented Kittel as the new fastest man in the world, but we also missed out on Cavendish at the Tour when he crashed out on the first stage. This year however Cavendish has found his game again, even if he's not quite as fast as he once was, while Kittle has had an injury plagued season that hasn't let up in time for the Tour. Others will look to step up but Cavendish stands a great chance now of adding to his 25 Tour stage wins. He's still 9 shy of Eddy Merckx, but he could level Bernard Hinault for second all-time should he win 3 stages this year.
Anyway. Forget overall classifications for a moment. Those can be speculated on endlessly and hopefully will be over the majority of the three weeks before we finally find out who will and won’t win. Instead, how about the route itself and the opportunity presented for stage winners?
If you were to sit down at home with a map of France and a marker, this is very close to a route you might come up with. To throw out another cliche: it has everything. There's the race opening individual time-trial, there's the high potential for cross-winds on the coast roads, there's short-sharp first week summit finishes on the Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne, there's a trip back to the cobbles (let's hope for rain!), and a team-time-trial. And that's just the first week. A heck of a mini-Tour in its own right. From there they hit the Pyrenees to start seriously splitting up the time gaps, they roll across the Massif Central giving no respite to tired legs but opening the door for all sorts of opportunistic exploits, and finally it's into the Alps to sort out the winners and losers once and for all. Right from the gun in Utrecht in the Netherlands, its relentless. They will summit the iconic Alpe d'Huez - the final climb of the race - only the day before the procession into Paris. With the sprinters fighting desperately for any sniff of an opportunity on rare flat days in between all this, expect everyday to have drama.
And that is why I couldn't resist but to return here and, still from the armchair (the dream remains however), start writing about this wonderful sport on this beautiful race once more. I cannot wait.
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Oh, predictions. I nearly got away with it...
Top 10 overall:
1. Chris Froome
2. Vincenzo Nibali
3. Thinaut Pinot
4. Nairo Quintana
5. Tejay Van Garderen
6. Alberto Contador
7. Romain Bardet
8. Ryder Hesjedal
9. Pierre Rolland
10. Rui Costa
Other jerseys:
Green: Peter Sagan
KOM: Pierre Rolland
White: Romain Bardet
