But I think I prefer it that way. I think with professional cycling and writing as a hobby, it works best. I haven't got a glossy magazine to publish with indepth coverage required to get to print and onto the shop shelves in time and nor do I have a TV show to produce, so I can leave it late to say what I have to say. Consider it: Had I put it all online in early June I might well have wrote something about Sir Bradley Wiggins being in there and had I put it online last week, I'd have talked about David Millar riding his final Tour and how he was a sure fire bet to get in on a break and a decent bet to win a stage. Today however we know that neither will take part.
Before I truly get into the meat of it, let's get one good ol' annual cliche out of the way: This tour looks set to be one of the best for years and predicting how it might unfold seems almost impossible.
Often said, but with the Tour de France, it's always true. And let's face it, coming in 2014 few would have thought Chris Froome could lose this Tour, but a shakier build up than he'd have hoped for coupled with the reimergance of Alberto Contador back to what looks like his best suddenly has the race up in the air as regards to who will win come Paris. And as I found out while trying to list my picks for the top 10, there are so many riders in with a shout, if not for the Yellow jersey, then certainly a top five finish.
But there really is something mouth watering about this Tour and what might lie ahead and I think it's as much the route itself than the fact there are so many men going into such a wide open race.
The Tour starts in England for the second time; the first time it has gone north of London. The Grand Depart in Leeds will see the race spend two days in Yorkshire, the heartland of English cycling in the eyes of many. But this ain't no traditional start ... there's no prologue and the first week is far from flat and made purely for the sprinters. Stage one has several nasty little climbs, probably not enough to spoil a shot at a first Yellow jersey for Mark Cavendish, but stage two certainly could. Many have likened it to the Liège-Bastogne-Liège due to the number of tough little hills and it's felt that a big favorite could lose time here. A third stage into London will suit the fast men again before the race returns to France.
Then there is stage five and a date with the cobbles. From the Liège-Bastogne-Liège lookalike on stage two to a Paris-Roubaix like stage three days later. They had better hope it doesn't rain, but even if it stays dry, splits are a certainty and some of those splits will contain big favorites who don't really like the rough stuff. And that's not mentioning pure bad luck which often plays its part in Paris-Roubaix. A badly timed puncture could throw the race into chaos if it comes the way of a GC contender.
From there they head south towards the mountains. First the Alps, then the Pyrenees. 6 mountain stages in all, 5 summit finishes. And just when you think they've had their fill and things have been sorted our on that final climb to Hautacam, they'll tackle the loan time-trial of this years Tour, a 54 kilometre effort on the penultimate day. Given the distance of that time-trial, minutes could be won and lost and so I'd say that while the British style bergs, Roubaix cobbles and the traditional high mountains will create all the losers of this Tour, that time-trial will give us our winner.
The Tour de France always has a little bit of everything, from the stages supplying the action to the men riding it. A twenty-one stage drama fit for any good movie, TV show, book or stage production. Reality TV at its best and so many stories developing with every turn of the road. There may be the battle for the overall glory that will be the focus of our general attention over the three weeks, but intertwined into the fabric of it will be the individual stages, the individuals glory, the crashes, the controversy, the scandal, the heroic efforts, the brilliant performance, the heartbreak, the winners and losers from Yellow jersey to Lantern Rouge, all in front of the backdrop of some of the most beautiful scenery. Such beauty mixed with such suffering, the Tour develops before us each day and writes itself into history right as we watch along.
One day I hope to find the money and time to travel with the race around France and immerse myself in the whole thing from sipping a hot tea or a cold beer on the patio of some little cafe or bar at the side of the street of some small French town as the race rolls through, to watching on the side of some giant mountain, camped out and surrounded by thousands of fanatic fans as the riders grind their way up to the top of yet another energy sapping climb. Until then, I'll be following along from the armchair at home once again and as the story develops I'll pass along my own thoughts here.
How it will turn out is impossible to say and given all the variables I have mentioned, you can see why the Tour de France is so much more than just a race. Still, it would be wrong not to climb off the fence and give a prediction. My heart says Rui Costa, the Portuguese reigning World Champion who is at last on a Lampre team that are going to give him the chance to go for the general classification. A nice guy of the peloton and a superb talent, I hope it can come together for him. My head however says Alberto Contador. A superb rider who finally looks to have found his best form yet again and who should push a Chris Froome who has taken a few knocks coming into this years edition, further than last year.
Feel free to disagree with my predictions below ... reality will probably do the same in three weeks time:
Overall:
1. Alberto Contador
2. Chris Froome
3. Vincenzo Nibali
4. Andrew Talansky
5. Rui Costa
6. Alejandro Valverde
7. Thibaut Pinot
8. Jurgen Van den Broeck
9. Bauke Mollema
10. Romain Bardet
Others: Laurens ten Dam, Joaquim Rodriguez, Jakob Fuglsang, Michal Kwiatkowski, Daniel Navarro, Tejay Van Garderen, Pierre Rolland, Chris Horner, Richie Porte, Mickel Nieve, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche.
Points: Peter Sagan, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel
Mountains: Pierre Rolland, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Joaqium Rodriguez
White: Andrew Talansky, Thibaut Pinot, Romain Bardet
Team: Tinkoff-Saxo
Most stage wins: Mark Cavendish